The contrarian word on the weekend action....

Last Updated: 07.09.2018

Friday, 7th September 2018

The contrarian word on the weekend action….

I reckon Jamie Osborne’s CLIFFS OF CAPRI is a backable price at 25s for tomorrow afternoon’s Cunard Handicap (2.45) at Ascot....

The 4yo has done most of his career running to date on the AW surfaces – and the biggest part of that at Chelmsford....

He’s improved this term for the application of cheekpieces and he’s put in a series of three decent efforts over the specialist 7f trip since the end of July....

We’re looking at a horse in decent heart who appears to have found his ideal trip – and that’s always a good place to start from....

He’s only had two runs on turf to date. The first was disappointing. The second produced a win over tomorrow’s course and distance in the Longines Handicap (for lady jockeys) on July 28th....

The horse travelled well and finished off well that day to win off 87.

He did it with some in hand. And that’s just as well. Because he’ll need to find more if he’s going to win off tomorrow’s revised mark of 93...

But he’s got the scope to find it being so lightly raced on turf and the track is clearly one where he can produce....

Back in January when Dougie Costello won on the horse at Lingfield, he made the point that he thought the horse would turn out to be a better proposition on turf....

You get the impression connections have a plan for this one. Tomorrow could be it. And at a generous price, I’m prepared to put my money where my mouth is. I’m going in each-way....

Watching Brief....

Tupi is the rag for tomorrow’s Cunard Handicap at 33s – but he is worth keeping an eye out for....

He will emerge from stall 19 and it will be interesting to see how he goes first-time-up after switching from Richard Hannon’s yard to Hughie Morrison’s....

The 6yo was rated 114 at his peak three years ago. He’s unlikely to recapture that level of form but he won a Listed race at Doncaster in April 2017 when rated 101 and his current mark of 93 could prove dangerous if he can get things together in his new surroundings....

A change is as good as a rest. That’s as true for horses as it is for human being.  Having been with Hannon his entire career, a change might be just what he needs....

Let’s see how he goes under a first-time ride from Robert Havlin....

  • A backable proposition at Haydock....

THEGLASGOWWARRIOR steps up to the 14f trip in the 32Red Casino Handicap at Haydock tomorrow (3.35) and the extra yardage might be the factor that sees him go very close....

He’s done nothing but improve for Jim Goldie this term – in what has been a busy old campaign for the 4yo – evidenced by his elevation up the rankings from 70 up to 88 since May....

They say that you’re only as good as your last performance and last time at Hamilton Theglasgowwarrior was as good as he has ever been by my reckoning in the Lanark Silver Bell Handicap over 12f....

I thought he was a trifle unlucky not to win. He was held-up in the early stages and came with a powerful run full of purpose late in the day – fairly scything up the outside. There just wasn’t enough track on the day....

But that won’t be the case tomorrow. The extra quarter-mile can only suit....

He’s only up a pound for that Hamilton performance. I’m in no doubt he remains a competitive proposition on a revised mark of 88.

He’s an interesting contender and a backable one at the general 12s....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Cunard Handicap (2.45 @ Ascot).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CLIFFS OF CAPRI each-way (25 generally)

In the 32Red Casino Handicap (3.35 @ Haydock).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – THEGLASGOWWARRIOR (12s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....

I’ll be back a little later today with ATC Extra....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd