7th September 2018
We make a rare foray onto the All-Weather this weekend and fire a couple of bullets in the London Mile Handicap Series Final (3.15) at Kempton….
A maximum field of 16 runners goes to post for the C2 event run on the right-handed mile….
The going on the track is described today as Standard to Slow….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on the other races I’m targeting this weekend over on my paid ATC service….
Tomorrow’s Cunard at Ascot is the feature handicap of the day – with 20 runners going to post up the straight 7f….
That’s the kind of race we never swerve on ATC and I’m in this one tomorrow – backing a ‘live’ one at a big each-way price....
I’m also playing in the 32Red Casino Handicap over the 14f trip at Haydock....
I fancy one to improve again for the trip and I’m on him at a double-figure price....
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
I cannot resist backing Amanda Perrett’s THE WARRIOR at the general 16s….
The 6yo has got a thoroughly appalling strike-rate and it is not unfair to describe him as a serial loser….
But, if he is going to have his day in the sun anywhere then it is going to be here at Kempton on the AW and over the mile trip. Whatever the best of him is, these conditions bring it out….
That was evidenced in last season’ renewal of this very race where he produced a cracking effort to finish 2nd to Brilliant Vanguard off a mark of 85….
That’s just about the closest he’s ever come to winning a decent-sized pot. And he is probably never going to have a better chance of improving on that effort than he does tomorrow….
He’s all the way down to a mark of 75. That’s 10lb lower than the mark he ran so well off last term. That’s got to give him a massive chance of going in if he can fire….
Ordinarily, I’d make the case that he hasn’t been firing and hasn’t looked like doing it. Under different circumstances, I wouldn’t touch him with a bargepole….
But this mile at Kempton has served to set him alight so often in the past that I’m prepared to take the price about it doing so again tomorrow.
I could back him each-way at the price, but I prefer instead to go two-against-the-field and the other one I want to be with at the prices is Ed Dunlop’s MUDALLEL at 14s….
He’s better on the AW than he is on turf and back on his favored surface he found form in his two starts last month at Chelmsford – form that he can build on again tomorrow….
He’s up to 83 in the ratings. But I don’t think that puts the lid on him. I think there is more to be wrung out of him yet.
He’s been running like a horse that will benefit from a proper end-to-end gallop. And with 16 going to post tomorrow, he might just get what he needs to progress well beyond what he’s shown in smaller fields to date….
The yard has hit form of late and, if nothing else, the 4yo should tur-up all guns blazing….
The Pick of the Prices....
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the London Mile Handicap Series Final (3.15 @ Kempton).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.