21st September 2018
We’re down at Newbury for our target race tomorrow – the Dubai Duty Free Handicap over the 10f trip at 1.45….
This is a classy handicap that has a history of producing horses that subsequently show-up to good effect in Group races. I don’t expect tomorrow’s contest to be any exception….
A smaller-than average field of 14-runners will emerge from the stalls on ground described as good this afternoon….
There’s a smattering of rain forecast – but no deluge – and I’d expect the ground to hold….
We’ll get to my selection for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
This week on ATC….
On Monday, we looked back at last Saturday’s Portland at Doncaster and extracted what insight we can take from the race….
On Tuesday, we took a break from the racing and instead focused on the problems of punters who dream too big….
On Wednesday, we focused on this weekend’s big sprint contests at Ayr – highlighting the pointers that previous renewals offer….
On Thursday, we got onto in-depth specifics and assessed the likely effects of the draw in the three big sprints set to be run at Ayr’s feature meeting….
You can view this material and a whole load of additional angles, insights and observations in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service. Do that right here....
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
KASSAR has been a consistent performer for Roger Charlton this term without quite managing to set the world alight….
It’s been unclear what his preferred trip is. He put in a cracking performance at Goodwood over 9f and was unlucky not to win that day – being carried left by the third-placed horse at a key stage….
He certainly didn’t appreciate the step back to a mile next time out at York….
Ryan Moore was on his back that afternoon and there’s no better man to give you a steer about where to go next with a horse….
So, tomorrow he shows up at Newbury for this first-time go at the 10-furlong trip and at the general 20s and 16s he is well worth an each-way bet that the trip will prove the making of him….
He went up 5lbs for that Goodwood race in August, which was a little stiff considering he didn’t win. He goes off 96 tomorrow and will need to improve on anything he’s shown before….
But Adam McNamara is back on duty in the saddle and take off a useful 3lbs – and that will help….
And I’m convinced the 10f will improve the horse. On the two occasions he’s been raced at 9f, he’s stayed on well and looked like a horse that will appreciate a little further.
At the big price, he’s worth chancing that he needs it and will improve for it….
The Pick of the Prices....
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Dubai Duty Free Handicap (1.45 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
The main betting focus for my paid ATC service is at Ayr this weekend….
The Gold Cup is the feature handicap over 6f – and I’m two-against-the field at prices with horses likely to appreciate conditions more than most….
Earlier on the card in the Silver Cup, I’m siding with one each-way at an attractive price….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.
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