28th September 2018
The pick of the prices at Haydock tomorrow….
How time flies….
On Monday morning, my publisher wrote to remind me that I’ve been writing Against the Crowd – in one incarnation or another – for 10-years this weekend….
I don’t know what proportion of racing services stick around that long. Not many I would wager….
I guess our longevity serves to underline the point that we have found enough winners at big enough prices over the years to get in front and to stay in front – and to keep our readership at least mildly satisfied….
Hopefully, we can add to that record this weekend at Haydock….
But, before we get onto the business of the day, I’d like to give you a heads-up and request that you keep an eye on your email box tomorrow….
My publisher is going to write to you. It doesn’t happen very often. And, when he does sit down and put pen to paper, it is generally to your advantage to take an interest….
Look out for that tomorrow….
Now onto the betting….
The 3yos have a decent record in past renewals of the Smarkets Handicap at Haydock (3.15) – winning 3 of the last 4 editions….
Only a couple from that age-group line up tomorrow. Richard Fahey’s MILITIA is one of those and could well provide the answer to the puzzle at this today’s 12s with bet365 and 11s generally….
He opened his account this season at Thirsk in May over the minimum distance. Since then he’s been raced over the 6f – winning again at Ayr in July….
But my suspicion is that he’s going to appreciate – and can progress again – for the step-back to the bare 5f tomorrow….
Last time at Ripon he was overhauled late on over 6f after showing plenty of early speed. He won’t be so easy to peg back tomorrow over a furlong shorter….
He’s a pound out of the handicap. But the booking of a claimer for the first time helps with that. And the cut in the ground will help this horse. There’s no reason he can’t run a big race….
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Smarkets Handicap (3.15 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
The big race tomorrow for handicap fans is the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. A field of 35 go at it hell-for-leather up the 9f straight….
Many punters will look at the race as a lottery. I see it as a cast-iron opportunity to bet in an environment where there are sure to be plenty of pricing errors….
I think I’ve found two such errors. I’m going in each-way on two horses at big prices….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.
P.S. Just another quick reminder to keep an eye on your email box tomorrow. My publisher will be getting in touch with a generous invitation….