26th October 2018
We are fast-approaching the last knockings of the 2018 flat season. Pretty soon now, the full focus will turn to the winter game….
But one or two decent betting heats still await and tomorrow we get one up at Doncaster in the shape of the C2 sunracing.co.uk Handicap over the straight 5f trip at 3.25….
A maximum field of 22-runners turns out on ground described this afternoon as good to soft….
Paul Midgely’s Tarboosh not only heads the weights on a mark of 104 but he also heads the ante-post betting at a best-price of 8s….
The 5yo has had a good 12-months – winning 3 of his 8 races. He’s gone up the weights to the tune of 12lbs as a result. But you wouldn’t say his current mark is beyond him.
He ran off 104 in a handicap the time before last at Haydock and found just one of his sixteen opponents too good on the day. He’s clearly dangerous but he’s been well-and-truly found in the betting….
Camacho Chief is another one that’s been shooting up the rankings this term and is fancied to go well tomorrow afternoon….
The 3yo went up another 4lbs to 95 for a narrow defeat to Copper Knight at York last time. Getting beaten, missing out on first-place prize money and still getting a 4lb hike is less than ideal. The job gets harder. He might well overcome the latest rise, but I wouldn’t want to be backing him to do so at a single-figure quote….
Here at ATC, we don’t really think about races in terms of finding winners or getting on the shorties. Instead, we seek to find a horse that can get competitive at a price….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on the other race I’m targeting tomorrow – over on my paid ATC service….
Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting signals the start of the jumps season proper….
Over on my paid ATC service, our attention is focused on the 17-runner 3m1f handicap that opens the card tomorrow afternoon….
I’m siding with one who looks well-handicapped and primed to produce a big run at a double-figure price….
You can get immediate access to this extra bet on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
Over on my paid ATC service we backed ABEL HANDY at a big price on his handicap debut in the Portland at Doncaster back in September….
He didn’t reward us with a win. He finished 6th of the 21 runners – for my money his best effort of the season – and he’s interesting tomorrow for this race back at 5f on ground with a bit of juice and sitting at 16s in the betting….
The 3yo had a cracking juvenile season last term that culminated with a win in the G3 Cornwallis at Newmarket in October – over the bare 5f on ground that offered a little cut….
It hasn’t happened for him this term. He got smashed in the G1 Commonwealth Cup on fast ground at Ascot in June. He got well-beaten in a Listed race at York again on fast ground. And then he got blasted again on fast ground in the G1 Nunthorpe back at York in August on his first run back since undergoing the gelding procedure.
His sights were lowered for the Portland which he contested off a mark of 96. That was over the extended 5f on good. Next time he got beaten over 6f in a handicap at Ascot – again on good.
My suspicion is that Abel Handy wants the bare 5f trip and that a bit of cut will help him. Tomorrow he gets that combination of circumstances for the first time since that back-end G3 win last year – and that’s what makes the 16s appealing….
That and the fact that he’s now down to 92 in the rankings – almost a stone off his career-high rating and 4lb lower than the mark he contested the Portland off….
His last two runs came under William Buick and James Doyle. Stevie Donohoe – who has ridden the horse before – gets the ride tomorrow….
Donohoe might easily be dismissed as a spare. But trainer Declan Carrol and Donohoe have produced 3 wins from 13 combined efforts over the last 12 months and I would suggest that Donohoe is a rider Carrol has some faith in and represents a more significant booking than might appear to be the case at first glance.
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the sunracing.co.uk Handicap (3.25 @ Doncaster).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.
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