The contrarian word on the weekend action....

Last Updated: 02.11.2018

Friday, 2nd November 2018 

The contrarian word on the weekend action….

We’re at a very early stage of the new season. There is little form yet logged in the form book and a fair proportion of the field are making their seasonal debuts....

Without direct access to what’s going on in individual yards, establishing which horses are forward and which might need a run amounts to a combination of guesswork and speculation....

Of course, some horses have shown in the past that they can run big races first-time-up. Others have shown they are better after an initial blow....

But what has happened in the past is not always an entirely reliable indicator of what will happen this time around. At the outset of a new season, some things must be taken on trust and other things taken on chance....

With all that in mind we set out to identify the pick of the early price....

  • A likely type....

Rebecca Curtis had a difficult time of it last season – producing only 9 winners from just 89 runners....

That was a return well down on previous years and was due in large part to the end of a relationship and horses departing from the yard as a result....

But while talent might sleep, it doesn’t die. It might have taken a little time to get some momentum into the rebuilding programme, but signs are that Curtis is back bouncing along....

Last weekend she won the staying handicap chase at Cheltenham with Relentless Dreamer and at 8s, her 7yo GEORDIE DES CHAMPS is a fair bet to land another nice pot for her tomorrow afternoon....

The Sodexo is a race where it frequently pays to side with lightly-raced and progressive types rather than the more-exposed veterans and the JP McManus-owned gelding certainly fits the bill....

He was rated 140 as a hurdler but is rated just 138 for tomorrow’s race and the pick of his form as a novice last year suggests that’s a mark he can move on from....

Aidan Coleman has been called-up in for the ride on a horse that has given a good account of himself on the back of breaks on multiple occasions. The yard is going nicely with 2 winners from 5 runners over the last fortnight and I suspect that Geordie Des Champs will be primed to go well....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Sodexo Gold Cup (3.35 @ Ascot).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (8s generally )

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

No ATC Extra from me this weekend. There are plenty of big races to come over the next few weeks. We’ll stick to one race this weekend and fire a few more shots as the season progresses....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....

I’ll be back in your inbox on Monday – when we’ll have a crack at Tuesday morning’s Melbourne Cup over in Australia....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd