30th November 2018
We’re up at Newcastle for tomorrow’s target race – the Rehearsal Handicap Chase (3.20) over the 3-mile trip….
A field of 12 goes to post on ground advertised as good to soft this afternoon….
With rain forecast over the trip throughout tomorrow morning, conditions underfoot could well be soft by the time the tapes go up….
More than half the field will be making their seasonal debut. And nothing comes into the race on the back of a last-time-out win….
The winner will either have to do it at the first time of asking or improve on what it did last time out….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on the other bet I’m having tomorrow….
It’s a slightly disappointing turnout for the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury tomorrow with just 13 horses going to post – the lowest turnout since 1999….
Plenty of the horses with the right kind of profile – based on the historic record – have been well-found at the top of the market.
But over on my paid ATC service, we’re doing our usual thing and taking a contrarian position….
I’m backing a dangerously well-handicapped horse each-way at a big price….
You can get immediate access to this extra bet on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
Kerry Lee’s string hasn’t been in the best of form. She hasn’t had a winner since April. But BISHOPS ROAD can right that record for her in this contest tomorrow at 12s with Paddy Power & 10s with William Hill, Betfred & generally….
The 10yo could have won last Saturday afternoon at Haydock on ground quicker than ideal but did himself no favours when almost unseating Richard Johnson at the final fence….
Connections had to make do with the runner-up spot but the run at least signaled a return to fitness and form for a horse that hasn’t managed to get his head in front for well over two years….
In the handicap sphere, losing does have its compensations. A sequence of losses succeeds in encouraging the handicapper to keep trimming the rating. He ran off 135 last week….
The horse has gone up 2lbs this week for Saturday’s success. That leaves him on a mark of 137 tomorrow….
Going up in defeat is never ideal. But he remains potentially the best handicapped horse in tomorrow’s field and carries just 10-11 tomorrow – the lowest weight he’s had to hump round a British track since the 2017 Grand National….
In this race last year, he placed 2nd off a mark of 144. The year before he was 4th off a mark of 154. Tomorrow’s mark of just 137 gives him every chance now he’s back showing a bit of pizzazz….
Of course, he’s 10 now. They never get any younger. But he’s not over-the-hill by any means and the mark is everything in handicaps. He can run a big race tomorrow – and every drop of rain that falls can only aid his cause….
No Richard Johnson tomorrow. He’s down at Newbury. But classy and experienced Robbie Power is no bad substitute….
The horse has never been turned around this quickly before in his career. It suggests he’s come out of last weekend’ race okay and connections are keen to strike whist the iron is hot….
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Rehearsal Handicap Chase (3.20 @ Newcastle).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.