7th December 2018
Tomorrow’s Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree (3.15) has been cut a little closer to the bone than I would have liked….
In years gone by fields in the high teens and twenties have gone to post. But 2018 is at the other end of the trend with just 11 turning out for tomorrow’s renewal….
Heavy ground has been at the root of some of the smaller fields over the years. That’s the case again….
30mm+ of rain have fallen over the track over the last few days and underfoot conditions will be testing tomorrow….
It’s a tight old market too – with 8 of the 11 participants trading at 12s or shorter at time of writing….
But there’s still a decent bet to be had at a price that is acceptable given the conditions and the context….
More on that in a moment….
First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
Thursday on ATC….
We keep track of lots of bits and pieces over on my paid ATC service – and from time to time our data interrogations yield potential seams of gold….
Like the winning combination that has banked a 16.77 profit from 17 qualifying bets since the beginning of September….
Had you backed all those horses to £20 level stakes on the nose, you’d be sitting on profits amounting to £335.40….
Of course, what’s done is done. Those races won’t be run again. And notional profit is just that – notional….
But we believe there is more to come yet. It isn’t too late to be following this angle. You should at least be aware of it. We expect this partnership to target bigger and better big handicaps in the weeks ahead – and we reckon the prices will be there….
You can get the full detail on this angle in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service. Do that right here....
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
This race has been the plan for him and he prepared for it at Carlisle – his first race for 10-months – with a taking victory off a mark of 130 on ground a fair bit quicker than his previous best work had been produced on….
He’s been raised 4lbs for that by the official handicapper. And that could prove conservative. There is a lot more to come yet from an individual with bit of class about him….
The 7yo is progressing very sweetly. He’s won four of his last five races over fences. He’s in the winning habit. And the reduced field might well pay to his advantage. He hasn’t done anything yet in a really big field. And he won’t have to tomorrow. He’ll see plenty of his fences….
Jumping is his strong suit and he loves heavy ground. So, tomorrow’s race is one that could well see him to best effect. And he stays further than 2m5f trip. That will be a plus on taxing ground and fences that take some jumping….
The 12s is an attractive enough price in my book….
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Grand Sefton handicap Chase (3.15 @ Aintree).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
The Grand Sefton might have produced a slightly disappointing field – at least numerically. But that’s not the case with the Becher Chase a little earlier on the card….
A king-size field of 18 goes for that one over the 3m2f trip. It’s competitive and you can make a valid case for plenty of the participants. But there are bets to be struck at good prices….
I’m two-against-the-field – one win only and the other trading at a tasty each-way price….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.