Friday, 28th June 2019
TIME TO STUDY was stabled with Mark Johnston this time last year when he ran a decent 6th in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle off a mark of 108....
For tomorrow’s renewal at 3.35 he will represent Ian Williams – a dab hand with stayers – and he will run off a mark of just 96....
That reduced mark must give him a great chance of improving on last year’s placing. He’s a full 20lbs better off with the returning winner Withhold....
In terms of weight shouldered, he will be a stone better off than he was last time and, all things take together, the 5yo represents a decent bet in my book at this morning’s 16s....
Of course, horses tumble down the ratings ladder because they are not producing performances on the track that merit the mark they are running off....
And that is true of Time For Study....
At the tail-end of his career with Johnston, he threw in a series of clunkers. And his first two runs for Williams – after being gelded – weren’t much better....
That series of beatings saw his mark drop by 10 points....
But horses are not always on permanent downgrade. They can bounce back too. And Time For Study came good at Ascot’s Royal meeting earlier this month where he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the Ascot Stakes over the 2m4f trip....
I’m not sure he fully got home that afternoon – despite hitting the frame. Tomorrow’s shorter trip will suit better and if he can maintain the standard of that Ascot performance then he can run a big race at a none-too-shabby price....
Kevin Ryan’s SAVALAS has been dropping down the weights and rates a solid chance at 16s to get back on the scoresheet in tomorrow’s Sun Racing Handicap at York at 2.45....
Last term he ran his best race by far over tomorrow’s course and distance when 2nd to Hugo Palmer’s Encrypted on quick ground off a mark of 98 (he went up 5lbs to 103 for the performance)....
The ground up in Yorkshire is drying out all the time and he’s going to get the same kind of conditions tomorrow. If he’s on his game, he must be favoured at the weights on his current mark of just 92....
On the face of it, he hasn’t been setting the world alight this term. But there have been mitigating factors....
On seasonal debut at Thirsk he was badly drawn. And last time when well-beaten at Haydock he was racing on heavy ground that does not suit....
In between times he ran another solid effort back at York over tomorrow’s trip when 4th of 21 on quicker ground off 95. Another 3lbs off his back can only help tomorrow on a track he likes....
I want to be two-against-the-field in this one with the Michael-Dods-trained JAWWAAL my second selection at this morning’s 20s, 18s and 16s....
Dods picked this horse up out of John Gosden’s yard ahead of the start of the season. And the 4yo got started in promising fashion with two improved performances in handicaps up at Doncaster over the 6f trip....
Next time at Thirsk in mid-May, the horse disappointed – finishing last of 14 and beaten 10-lengths over the 6f trip. But it transpires he bled....
He’s been given time to recover from that experience and he resumes tomorrow chasing a better prize off a mark of 89 with Paula Muir taking off 5lbs....
That booking might be a response to the horse having been raised a coupe of pounds for defeats. It might be a tweak designed to give the horse its best chance possible....
Either way, I am of the mind the horse can prove better than a mark in the high 80s and that he can strike in this kind of race at this kind of level....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Northumberland Plate (3.35 @ Newcastle).
In the Sun Racing Handicap (2.45 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
No ATC Extra today. I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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