Friday, 31st January 2020
They upped the prize money for the Heroes Handicap Hurdle a couple of years back. It’s had the effect you’d hope for – it’s encouraged three big turnouts on the bounce....
The latest of those will see 17 go to post for tomorrow’s renewal at Sandown (3.00)....
They run over a little shy of 3-miles and they’ll be doing it on soft ground which is currently heavy in places. There’s just a little light rain forecast between now and the off....
Earlier in the century we had three years on the bounce where the race didn’t take place....
But the historic record can still provide a little guidance and some context if you are set on digging out your own selection for this race....
Of the 9 renewals of the Heroes that were run between 2008 and 2019, 7 were won by horses aged between 6- and 8-years-old. Most placers over the period fell into the same age category....
Five last time out winners line up at the start tomorrow. The stats say those performances are something of a mixed blessing – something to overcome. Only one of the last 9 winners of this race beat everything home the time before....
Philip Hobbs’ Big Shark has only run 3 times over hurdles to date. The stats suggest that’s a negative too. Eight of the last 9 winners had raced at least 4 times over timber. And 8 had already won at least two hurdle races....
Eight of our previous nine winners had been seen on the track inside the last 8-weeks. That’s a stat that Golan Fortune, Dan McGrue and Clondaw Cian will all be looking to overcome. Seven of the nine had already raced at least twice that same season....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here are some of the features, points, issues and themes that my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Track record – Big Shark has a big stat to overcome tomorrow but Philip Hobbs can’t be underestimated in this contest. He knows what kind of horse it takes to win. He’s won it three times and placed with three more from just 8 runners in total. Will it be more of the same tomorrow?
Another knack man – Paul Nicholls is the other handler with the knack. He runs Dan McGrue. That one bids to become Nicholls’ fourth race winner. The Ditcheat handler has placed with two more and from a total representation of 14-runners. Will it be five wins since 2007?
Room for improvement – earlier this week we saw how well Dan Skelton has been going in the big handicaps this term. If that run is to continue tomorrow then Skelton will need to improve on a 5-year record at the track that reads 1 winner from 53 runners. Can he bust the stat?
Interesting booking – Jamie Moore is top man at the track with 20 winners from his last 97 rides at a healthy 21%. He rides Go Whatever (last time out CD winner on handicap debut) for Chris Gordon. It’s a first time booking on the horse. He’s 3 from 28 for Gordon 2013. Interesting booking and will relish the ground....
Can he go one better? The 9yo Coole Cody was 2nd last year at a big price on a mark of 137. He tried to make all (minus a hood for the first time) but got picked off a by a good winner. He’s on 131 this time (5lb lower than his last winning mark) with Nick Schofield partnering-up again – and he wears first-time cheekpieces.
Some readers assume that I look at these races and try to pick out the winner....
But that’s not the case. I don’t look for winners. Instead, I look for a horse I reckon can get competitive but which is trading at a wrong price....
I’m always against the short horses. I never back anything anybody else fancies. Without fail, I seek the contrarian option in the market. Sometimes I look stupid as a result. Sometimes I look like a genius....
The aim is to find value. If I do that job effectively enough over time, the winners will look after themselves – and at prices which get me in front across the long-term. That’s the theory....
GO WHATEVER at the general 14s is my idea of a bet for this one....
I suspect this has been the plan for the horse since he won in decent fashion over course and distance back in December....
That was his second win from just 4 goes in total – and his first at the 3m (there or thereabouts) trip....
It was heavy that day and it won’t be too far away from that again tomorrow. We know he acts on the track; we know he stays the trip well; and we know he’ll be fine on the surface.
That’s three big boxes ticked – and not all his opponents tomorrow will go into the race on that basis....
There should be plenty more to come yet from the 6yo and he has every chance of making up into a nice stayer....
Because they’ve kept him back since that last win, he gets into tomorrow’s race off a mark of just 125. It’s inconceivable that his current perch is going to be the extent of him. He’s got to be well-handicapped. And carrying just 10-1 tomorrow will be plenty helpful to him....
Jamie Moore is booked for the ride. As we’ve already noted, he goes well at the track. I expect a competitive performance at a decent-enough price....
Gary Moore likes a winner at Sandown and his DIABLE DE SIVOLA is my bet at 14s for the Masters Handicap Chase at 3.35....
With just one win from 20 starts under rules, he could never be described as a serial winner. But he’s only been with Moore for his last 3 starts and last time at Newbury when stepped up in trip to the extended 2m6f he looked better for it....
For my money he was getting a little outpaced in the middle stages before making moves later on and he was going as well as ever when hampered by a faller....
I’m not saying he would have got to the principals who were slugging it out up-front. But his momentum was severely checked and he was better value than the distances between horses at the finishing line suggest....
I reckon he will like the stiffer test still tomorrow and a first-time visor might just sharpen his focus too. He’s got something to prove, but he’s a nice price for a horse unexposed at the trip and with that last race in mind....
Up at Musselburgh, I’ll be backing WONDERFUL CHARM at the general 6s for the Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (3.15)....
It’s always worth sitting up and taking note when Nicholls sends one this far. And this once-upon-a-time classy type (with 10 wins to his name over fences) can still prove good enough to win a race of this calibre off a mark of 137....
He’s been off for 246 days but that’s not a concern. His record shows that first-time-up is the time to catch him – and there’s no way Nicholls would be sending this horse all the way up to Scotland to get a run into him. He could do that much closer to home....
He’s travelling because he’s out to win. The price is fair enough in that context....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Heroes Handicap Hurdle (3.00 @ Sandown).
In the Masters Handicap Chase (3.35 @ Sandown).
In the Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (3.15 @ Musselburgh).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back in your inbox on Monday with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Enjoy the racing this weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Brought to you by The Oxfordshire Press Ltd @ 2024 
