Friday, 14th February 2020
The weights for the Grand National were released on Tuesday lunchtime....
This Saturday’s Grand National Trial at Haydock (3.15) offers potential runners in that race an early opportunity to reveal themselves to be better than the mark/weight the official handicapper has allotted them for the big one in April....
There’s no disadvantage to doing so. Once your weight has been set in the Grand National, it doesn’t change as a result of subsequent performance....
A horse that goes out and wins between now and April 4th effectively reveals that he is well-in for the Grand National....
Of tomorrow’s 11 runners at Haydock, seven have an entry at Aintree....
The historic record can provide a little guidance and some context if you are set on digging out your own selection for tomorrow’s race at Haydock....
The veterans don’t have the best record – 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 10yo or younger. That’s a negative for One For Arthur and for Smooth Stepper....
All 17 previous winners had won between 2 and 4 times over fences. That stat represents a negative for Yala Enki who has banked 7 career chase wins – including the 2018 edition of this very race....
Fourteen of last 17 winners had finished in the first 3 last time out. That’s a negative for most of the field – but a positive for Yala Enki, Lord Du Mesnil, Vintage Clouds and Geronimo....
It’s going to be a real slugfest on heavy ground and the stats suggest running off a layoff is a negative. Thirteen of the last 17 winners had been on the track inside the last 50-days. That’s a negative for One For Arthur, Ballyoptic and Steely Addition....
No horse in the last 17-years has manged to be successful off a rating of 150+....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here are some of the features, points, issues and themes that my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Track star – Richard Hobson’s Lord Du Mesnil is 2 from 2 at the Lancashire track with both those wins produced since mid-December. Is a hat-trick on the cards? The market believes so – he’s the jolly. He’ll need to defy a 10lb rise in the weights to justify that billing though....
Career-high – Vintage Clouds must also defy a big rise. The 10yo won the Peter Marsh impressively last time but was running off 143 – the kind of mark he has regularly been competitive off. Tomorrow he’s up to a career-high perch of 154 and will need to be better than ever before to land the pot....
Back in the game – One For Arthur has been dropping down the scale and is back down to the mark of 148 he won the 2017 Grand National off. Will the 11yo be fully wound-up for tomorrow’s assignment off a 70-day break or is this a fitness-builder for Aintree? Hard to know for sure but his trainer has won the race 3 times in the last 10 years. It will be interesting to see the effects of a wind-op and first-time cheekpieces....
The man in from – Pobbles Bay is 11 now and a pound out of the handicap for tomorrow’s race. But on the plus side he will be partnered by Adam Wedge and no rider in tomorrow’s race can be feeling more confident right now. He’s ridden 8 winners from 33 rides this last fortnight and is a man in hot form....
Up against it – No horse has managed to win this race off a mark of 150+. Elegant Escape is attempting to do it off 162, 11lbs above his last winning mark, on a track he’s never seen before and on the back of a first-time wind operation. As a handicap punter you never say never. But he is certainly up against it
Some readers assume that I look at these races and try to pick out the winner....
But that’s not the case. I don’t look for winners. Instead, I look for a horse I reckon can get competitive but which is trading at a wrong price....
I’m always against the short horses. I never back anything anybody else fancies. Without fail, I seek the contrarian option in the market. Sometimes I look stupid as a result. Sometimes I look like a genius....
The aim is to find value. If I do that job effectively enough over time, the winners will look after themselves – and at prices which get me in front across the long-term. That’s the theory....
It’s a tight enough little market with 6 of the 11 runners trading at single-figure prices....
The one that appeals at a double-figure price is Sandy Thomson’s GERONIMO at 11s...
He didn’t find it easy last time in the Peter Marsh, but he plugged on manfully, he wasn’t beaten miles and he was only pipped for 2nd place very late on by Definitely Red – a real quality horse....
Despite that, connections were delighted with the 9yo. It was just his second run back after being injured in the Scottish Grand National last spring and it was his first run back at a proper trip....
I’m not concerned about the longer trip. He will be fitter for that last time out experience and he was going as well as anything in the Scottish Grand National before hitting one hard and putting himself out of the race- and he’d won over 3m2f previously at Ayr....
That was on good to soft, but he has won on heavy and his yard think the Haydock ground suits. I think he just needed that Peter Marsh run and can improve again for it....
He’s only got 7 chases to his name and has plenty of scope to progress again despite going up a stone in the rankings over the last 12-months. He’s a fair price....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Grand National Handicap Trial (3.15 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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