Friday, 26th March 2021
It’s Friday morning – the time of the week when I stick my head above the parapet, put my money where my mouth is and nominate horses for the weekend’s biggest handicaps….
Old hands know the drill. But for new recruits occasional reminders are in order….
I always take a contrarian stance – ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is potentially overlooked and underestimated at a long shot price….
That’s the game at ATC….
You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. The prices tell you that….
My job is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
If you get a chance, have a look at Man Of The Night’s run in the Lincoln Trial Handicap at Wolverhampton earlier this month. I thought it was interesting….
He finished 8th of 13 runners beaten just 2-lengths – closing from midfield in a race that was run to suit those horses up on the pace….
His jockey reported meeting interference and not getting clear run. I didn’t see it that way….
There was an opportunity to switch wide for room halfway down the straight. The jockey didn’t take it, went back inside and for my money the horse was slightly minded behind the front ranks from that point forward….
That’s just how I saw it. You may see it differently. Whatever, this big horse – who has not yet lived up to his early promise and the expectations of connections – will come on for that run and it would be no surprise to me if he ran a big race in tomorrow’s Lincoln (3.10) at the general 18s….
I thought about putting him up. I thought about quite a few. This is a big-field handicap after all and you can make a case for most of them. But the one I’m going with is Richard Hannon’s other runner – OUZO at the general 25s….
He was generally progressive last term – not least when landing a big-field mile handicap at York in October….
He’s only up 5lbs for that win – produced in a decent time – and the form has been well-franked since by the 2nd horse, the 4th horse, and the 5th….
Earlier in the season he’d been sent off the 4/1 favourite for the 22-runner Silver Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot under Ryan Moore. He didn’t quite produce what the market hoped for on the day – but he was gelded shortly afterwards and his subsequent performances suggest the procedure assisted his cause….
He’s first-time up tomorrow, but I’m not concerned about that. Every time he’s been asked to race off a break he’s produced a competitive performance and I can see him going well again tomorrow from a reasonable draw in stall 16….
If you play each-way take note that Skybet are 1/5 the first 7 & Unibet are 1/5 the first 6….
Richard Fahey has done well in the opening day handicaps at Doncaster over the years – 54 runners since 2009 producing 4 winners and 12 placers….
This year he has just one runner – AMAYSMONT in the Spring Mile (2.30) – and that’s the one I want to back at the general 12s, a price that is just about acceptable….
I don’t think too much was expected of the horse last year. Fahey had him earmarked as one for this year and tomorrow’s race gives the 4yo an early-season opportunity to frank Fahey’s long-term projections….
The horse has certainly improved on the AW over the winter – wining twice and producing a sequence of competitive efforts in between times….
The key has been the step up to the mile trip. He’d previously been tried at the mile as a 3yo in the Britannia at Royal Ascot – the biggest prize he’s run for to date and a sign perhaps of the level Fahey thinks the horse can get to in time….
The horse got well beat that day but next time at the trip – at Newcastle in November – the horse took a step forward….
That was on the straight with Paul Hanagan up. He’s not been back on a straight mile since and Hanagan hasn’t ridden the horse since. But the pair are back together on a straight mile track tomorrow and I wonder if this is a plan that was hatched a while back….
Time will tell. And at the price I’m prepared to take the punt. The 4yo held his form all across the winter and was as good as ever he has been last time at Wolverhampton – albeit in defeat. He’s open to improvement back on turf….
In stall 2 he’s not ideally drawn. But there’s going to be plenty of pace out to his right that Paul Hanagan can latch onto early doors – and let’s not overlook the fact that the last two editions of the race were won from stalls 3 and 1….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Lincoln Handicap (3.10 @ Doncaster).
In the Spring Mile (2.30 @ Doncaster).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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