Where my contrarian money is going on Day 1 at Aintree....

Last Updated: 07.04.2021

Wednesday, 7th April 2021

Where my contrarian money is going on Day 1 at Aintree….

On Day 1 at Aintree (tomorrow) the big race for handicap punters is the Red Rum Handicap Chase at 4.40….

The 2-mile contest has been a strong handicap for first-season chasers in recent times – with 11 of the last 18 editions falling to novices….

That’s something to be aware of if you’re looking at the race yourself and seeking out your own bets….

So too the fact that just 2 winners over the last 20-years have shouldered more than 11-02 to victory….

Neither stat is infallible, of course. Nothing in horse racing is….

But paying attention to the strongest trends – the ones that make sense – does at least you at least give you an idea of the kind of horse most likely to produce a competitive performance this time around….

And that beats throwing darts….

  • Well done, Dan!....

Depending on which way you come at it, Dan Skelton’s done very well in getting Destrier into tomorrow’s race on a mark of 136. My goodness, hasn’t he?

Just four races back that one was rated 151 over fences. So, the 8yo’s dropped down the rankings to the tune of 15lbs on the back of just three defeats! That’s some white-knuckle plummet….

Of course, horses get dropped by the official handicapper at that pretty spectacular rate when their performances out on the track appear to merit it….

And I guess getting slammed 24-lengths, 17-lengths, and 31-lengths in those three assignments since the turn of the year must fall into that category….

It hasn’t put the layers off Destrier’s chances though. Maybe they’ve seen a little money for the horse. But it won’t be much. Certainly not sufficient to be up at 6s and 11/2 this morning….

The bookies can see this is potentially a dangerously well-handicapped horse who might well appreciate a little better ground at Aintree than he’s been running on earlier in the year and who is ridden by a contender for the jockeys championship ….

In other words, he’s exactly the type of animal that might suddenly bounce back to life and form in advantageous circumstances….

The bookies don’t get paid – and seldom get any credit – for taking chances. They’re certainly not taking any here with Destrier….

  • One at a price….

Perhaps the layers are right. It wouldn’t be the first time….

But I don’t concern myself much with the short end of the market. Nobody needs me to tell them Destrier is in with a shout. The prices – a reflection of where market opinion stands at any given point in time – tell you that much….

My self-imposed role is to dig one out that I reckon can run a decent race at a price. No more. No less….

And the one for me tomorrow is Brian Ellison’s THE KING OF MAY – up at the general 20s with some 25s available at bet365….

He’s run three times over fences this term and he’s been consistent – producing a solid performance each time without banking a win….

Perhaps the pick of those efforts came at Wetherby over Christmas in the Castleford. He was 3rd to First Flow that day – beaten just under a length….

Granted, he was getting plenty of weight – but First Flow has gone out and won a G1 since then and is now rated 12lbs higher still on a mark of 166. That pays a compliment to Brian Ellison’s horse….

And I’m mindful that First Flow likes a deep surface and would have been suited by conditions at Wetherby on the day whereas I reckon The King Of May wants a better surface to produce his absolute best – and I see him improving tomorrow for getting one….

One benefit of not having logged a win already this season is that he hasn’t blown his mark for tomorrow. He’s still rated 133 – pretty much where he’s been rated all this term – and I reckon he will prove better than that. Hopefully, he can start proving me right tomorrow….

He took in an NHF race at Newcastle in February – which will have served to keep him ticking over. He’s not been seen since but that’s no problem because he goes well off a break….

I like the price….

Each-way punters take note: Sky Bet pay out 1/5 on the first 6 home. Most firms are up 1/5 the first 5….

Nick’s contrarian picks….

To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon….

In the Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40 @ Aintree).

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The final word….

That’s all from me for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the handicaps on Day 2 at Aintree….

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd