Saturday, 17th April 2021
Tom Scudamore went into last week’s Grand National with a large part of the betting nation expecting him to win on Cloth Cap….
It didn’t work out. But family connections mean he’s dropped on another big ride this week in the Scottish Grand National (tomorrow, 3.35)….
Lucinda Russell’s MIGHTY THUNDER is well capable of providing rapid consolation for Scudamore and is fairly-enough priced at 12s….
This column was on him in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh – which he won – and again in the Midlands Grand National where he ran a stormer and found just one too good….
On the handicap scene the 8yo has been one of the big stories this term. He’s improved mightily for every run – going up the ratings scale to the tune of a stone….
That kind of rise might see some horses hit a plateau. But Russell’s horse gives the impression there’s more to come yet….
He’s fit as a fiddle, he’s in form and he’s on a roll. He travels well, his jumping is efficient and he stays. He’s never going to have a better chance to land a big one and I see no reason to desert him tomorrow…
I want to be two-against-the-field and the other one I like is Sandy Thomson’s THE FERRY MASTER at 14s….
He was well-fancied to win the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh – but it was too soft for him and he was pulled out….
He’s had the one run since then at Haydock – and he disappointed. Perhaps he needed the run off a break of 84-days. If he did then perhaps his 21-length defeat can be overlooked….
He wasn’t up against clunkers that day either. A couple of horses that finished in front of him have seen to it that the form has worked out well….
The bottom line is that this horse goes into tomorrow’s race (one he’s been aimed at for a while) rated 133 – and he’s plenty better than that. Plenty better. I expect him to improve for the trip and he gets his ground….
Ryan Mania has deserted the 8yo and chosen to stick with Ultima winner Vintage Clouds. You could take that as a negative. But I choose to disregard it on the basis that Mania would have been right on the edge in terms of doing the 10-04 on The Ferry Master….
A jockey can’t ride two horses in one race and getting off one to ride the other isn’t always a slur on the first horse’s chances….
JOHAN was initially scheduled to run in the Lincoln for William Haggas – but was pulled out with a vet’s certificate….
It might turn out to be no bad thing. Given how the winner won that race, this looks a more viable contest for the 4yo….
Haggas will certainly be happy that his horse is slated to carry 2lbs less in tomorrow’s Spring Cup at Newbury than he would have had to at Doncaster….
The horse has been gelded since disappointing when last seen at Kempton on the AW in November. That could be to his benefit. And I’m not concerned about him needing the run….
He’s been going nicely at home by all accounts and he’s been reported as ready. He was certainly ready first-time up last term – winning a handicap in good style over tomorrow’s course and distance….
James Doyle was on his back that day. He gets to reacquaint himself with the horse tomorrow….
On a mark of 105, the horse is probably at the top end of where you’d want him to be. But the very pick of his form suggests there could be a bit more to come yet. The 12s is acceptable….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Scottish Grand National (3.35 @ Ayr).
In the Spring Cup (Newbury @ 3.20).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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