Friday, 14th May 2021
It’s Day 3 of the Dante meeting up at York – and a quiet end to the meeting for us with just the 12-runner Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap at 2.40 representing a betting race for this column….
If you missed yesterday’s email containing my selection for that race, you can access that here….
Here at ATC we always operate ahead of the game and the focus of today’s column is the action that takes place tomorrow at Newmarket and at Newbury….
I’m betting in the 17-runner Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap at Newmarket at 3.15 – a C2 handicap for 3yos rated 0 to 105 over the 6f trip….
And I’m going off-piste at Newbury because I think there’s a horse to be backed at a decent price in the G1 Lockinge Stakes at 3.35….
We’ll get to my selections for those races in a moment. First, a word or two about a race I won’t be having a bet in tomorrow….
Just 11 go to post for tomorrow afternoon’s London Gold Cup at Newbury– a C2 handicap for the 3yo horses over the 10f trip….
I don’t fancy this year’s edition as a betting heat. But I’ll be watching very closely nevertheless….
The thing about this race is that it offers an early-season opportunity for quality classic generation horses to earn good prize money over a trip that wasn’t available to them as juveniles….
And plenty of horses that turn out for this contest are open to all manner of improvement as a consequence of getting a proper trip – and very likely to win races going forward….
Take the 2019 winner – Roger Charlton’s Headman. He won sent off at 12s from an official mark of 95. By the end of the season he’d won twice more (both G2s in France) and was rated 115….
In 2018 Mark Johnston’s Communique came out on top – winning off a mark of 84. Like any typical Johnston horse he was no stranger to the track afterwards – by the end of the term he’d raced 11 more times. But he won 4 of those and finished up on mark of 109….
Roger Varian’s Defoe won in 2017 – rated 88. He won his next 3 races as well – one a handicap, one a Listed race and one a G3 – and finished that same season rated 113….
And it’s not just the winners of the London Gold Cup that go on and win subsequent races that hoist them significantly up the rating scale. Horses in behind also have plenty of winning form coming out of the Newbury race….
The bottom line is this: the London Gold Cup is a race that produces plenty of subsequent winners. And it’s well worth watching very closely for the clues on display in this season’s edition….
Now, onto tomorrow’s betting races….
Newmarket hosts two early season C2 handicaps over the 6f trip for the 3yos – one at the Craven meeting and this one….
Most tend to be won by horses towards the top end of the weights. In other words, those horses that have already shown a bit tend to show a little bit more….
Marcus Tregoning’s Perotto was one very much on my shortlist earlier in the week. He did well to get as close as he did to Creative Force on his seasonal debut over course and distance earlier in the month – given that he made a complete mess at the start….
But he’s well-found at 6s and preference is given to the horse right at the top of the weights – JUST FRANK at 16s….
He’s not shown exactly what you’d want to see on his first two starts this term. He’s messed up the start both times and run too freely….
Hopefully, those runs have taken the fizz out of him and the key thing for me is that he returns tomorrow to a combination of big-field, track and trip that produced his best performance to date last October – when he won the valuable Tattersalls October Auction Stakes in taking style and had connections talking about him afterwards as a potential Britannia horse this term….
Whether or not that race at the Royal meeting is his destiny remains to be seen. Tomorrow comes first and with a first-time 7lb claimer on his back I reckon he’s primed to run a big race. He’s not without his potential glitches – but the price factors them in….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & William Hill pay out 1/5 the odds on the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally.
The highly-regarded Palace Pier takes a big percentage out of the overround in tomorrow’s Lockinge Stakes at Newbury at 3.35 – the first G1 of the new season for the older horses and run over the straight mile trip….
On form in the book, you can’t argue with the market’s assessment. If the race were a handicap, everything in the field would be getting at least 8lbs from the Gosden horse – and some more than a stone….
As it is they go off at level weights – with the exception of Lady Bowthorpe’s allowance – and Palace Pier is clearly at an advantage. There are no doubts about his fitness either – the dual G1 winner won in fine style on his return in the bet365 Mile at Sandown….
Fair enough. He deserves his odds-on status. But in my book odds-on is code for oppose and I want to take the jolly on with William Haggas’s MY OBERON at 10s & 9s….
He’s got plenty to find on the book. For sure. But he’s only 4, he’s very lightly raced, and he’s one of only a few in tomorrow’s field open to considerable progress….
I liked the impression he made in the Earl of Sefton at Newmarket on his seasonal return – when he comfortably saw off three older horses….
He’s a big horse, he’s not easy to get fit at home and I suspect he will come on in leaps and bounds for that run. Whether or not he can improve sufficiently to seriously trouble an on-song Palace Pier remains to be seen – but that’s factored into a generous price that I’m prepared to take….
Each-way backers take note: it is 1/5 the first 3 across the board.
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (3.15 @ Newmarket).
In the Lockinge Stakes (3.35 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I have an engagement on Monday. I’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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