Thursday, 24th June 2021
I’ve got another handicapper of interest for you today….
…. another horse that ran last week at Royal Ascot – like Beat Le Bon and Waliyak – and who I expect to win in the weeks ahead….
We’ll get to that a little further down the page….
First, a bit of prep-work for this Saturday’s betting target – the Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle….
The C2 event run over the 2-mile trip boasts a £150k prize fund – with £81k going to the winner….
This race offers staying horses suited to the tapeta racing surface an excellent opportunity to bank some proper money for connections – and there aren’t too many of those opportunities….
Pitman’s Derby day at Newcastle is a big day on the Northern circuit and the race is always well supported – there hasn’t been a year in the last 19 when fewer than 16 horses went to post....
The money talks too – at least it has. Seven of the last 9 editions of the race fell to one of the top two in the betting at the off....
The line-up for Saturday’s race will be finalised at lunchtime today. I expect a maximum field of 20 to go to post....
At that point, punters can get to work sorting the contenders from the likely also-rans....
My first port of call with big handicaps is always the historic record – the stats related to previous renewals of the race....
Of course, stats don’t win big handicap races. Well-treated horses do. But the stats are a useful aide nonetheless....
They offer a useful and informative starting point for your analysis – an initial route into a race. That’s how I use the stats – as a starting point. No more. No less....
The statistical record can tell you a great deal about the type of horse that tends to win a specific contest and why....
The statistical record can point you to horses of interest that are worthy of further and more detailed investigation....
The statistical record can help you reduce a big-field to a shortlist of qualified types....
When you come to look at the Northumberland Plate and before you submit this season’s runners to scrutiny, be sure to take note of some notable features this race has produced over the last 19-years....
The record doesn’t offer a tremendous volume of cast-iron pointers. But there’s a little to work with there that might prove of some assistance. I certainly wouldn’t be backing an older horse without a reason to be confident....
And – Withhold’s win in 2018 notwithstanding – I wouldn’t be rushing to support a horse making its seasonal return….
Look out for the William Haggas-trained Dubai Honour in the weeks ahead. He’s ready to land a pot and he’s going on to my Watch List….
He was gelded during the close season and the 3yo wore a first-time tongue-tie for his seasonal return at Royal Ascot last week in the Britannia….
His performance – 250 days after last being seen – suggested the procedure and the headgear have had the desired effect….
He posted a new personal best on the RPR scale – finishing 4th of the 29 that went to post and beaten just 2.5 lengths by the winner….
And you can mark him up too. He started the race in stall 10 – with the three that beat him starting in stalls 19, 25 & 28. Unlike that trio the Haggas horse raced on the far side of the track under Tom Marquand. He was first home of that group – beating the nearest horse to him a length….
He won his novice race on good ground last year. Then he produced his best performance of that season on soft ground. He gets the mile well and may get further still given the stamina on the dam side of his pedigree….
And he’s almost certain to come on for the reappearance. The handicapper’s put him 2lb to 93. But that’s just fiddling. Dubai Honour is going to prove better than that mark at some point – and he’ll get opportunities to prove it in the weeks ahead….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Brought to you by The Oxfordshire Press Ltd @ 2024 
