Wednesday, 7th July 2021
The Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap at 3.00 – a 6f event for the 3yos – is the feature betting event for me on Day 1 at Newmarket….
And the first thing to note is that the draw has been an interesting feature in the outcome of the race over the last few years….
I’ve only looked in detail at the last 7 renewals – delving any further back through the mists of time means we’d always be in danger of giving too much credibility to race features and variables that have changed or evolved during the interim period. Recency has most relevance….
The table below shows the stall numbers of the first four home in each of those renewals since 2014….
My first observation is that it is not impossible to win or place from a very low draw (7 or under) – but it’s clearly not easy. Just 3 of the 28 winners and placers since 2014 emerged from a stall that low….
Meanwhile, 14 of the 28 started the race in stall 14 or higher….
And a special mention should be given to stalls 19 and 20 (the top 2 stalls in most renewals) – with 7 of the 28 starting the race in either one of those berths….
Just Frank is interesting from stall 18. He’s dropped down the handicap a few pounds this term and he did go close at Chester over the easy 7f last time out (avoiding going back up the ratings)….
But Les Eyre’s string hasn’t seemed completely ‘on it’ this term and I see the horse more as the pace angle that will give something else drawn high a nice tow into the race….
Blackrod took a step forward at a nice price for Michael Dods last time at York. And I can see why he’s attracting support for tomorrow’s contest – he’s up at 9s this morning – with his starting berth in stall 16….
But the one I want to be with at the slightly better 10s is Ed Walker’s POPMASTER….
Connections really fancied this one for the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes at Ascot last time. On the day, he ran well – but I reckon the rains were against him. The heavy ground blunted his effort….
Tomorrow’s underfoot conditions will be much more like it for a horse that was progressive for each of three runs prior to a break and a gelding procedure ahead of the Royal Ascot assignment….
Tomorrow is an opportunity to get back on that progressive curve and a starting berth of stall 20 gives him every chance….
Oisin Murphy gets the ride. He’s 9 from 30 for Ed Walker this term – with another 9 of those rides hitting the frame. I’m expecting a big run from the pair. They’ve got plenty in their favour and the price is reasonable enough all things taken together….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill & Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 horses home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap (3.00 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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