Thursday, 8th July 2021
Today is Day 1 of Newmarket’s July meeting….
If you missed my selections for this afternoon’s big handicap, catch up here….
My focus is already on Day 2 (tomorrow)….
I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….
Let’s get down to it….
Tomorrow’s handicap feature is the bet365 Trophy over the 1m6f trip at 3.00 – with a field of 16 going to post. Plenty of these horses were on view in the Copper Horse at Ascot last month….
Some ran well that day. Amtiyaz won (up 4lbs); Global Storm was 3rd (up 2lbs); Arthurian Fable was 4th (up 1lb) and might well have gone closer still had he been kept on the rail for his final effort….
None of these has been penalised to a point that puts the lid on them. Each has been well-found in the betting for tomorrow’s contest. It’s easy work to make a case for any of them….
Others reappearing tomorrow didn’t run quite such big races at Ascot – including Kevin Ryan’s THRONE HALL who finished 10th. I think he’s worth another go at the general 12s for tomorrow’s contest….
There’s no doubt he was a disappointment to connections and punters alike on the day. He certainly wasn’t unfancied – sent off at 9s. But he never got into the race….
He was on the back foot from the start – emerging tardily from the stalls. This is something he’s started to make a bit of a habit of. That’s a concern. But you’d – expect they’ve been working on that in the meantime at home….
He was towards the rear from the start. He never got into it from there. He never looked like getting into it. Andrea Atzeni was niggling him along on the run for home. He had to take a wide passage. He was never getting there – or any place close. It was one of those runs….
Prior to that run the 4yo had put in a series of solid efforts in handicaps at Doncaster, Thirsk, and York over 10f and 12f. He’d been hitting the line well too – and he was well worth the try over the 1m6f trip at Ascot….
I don’t think he didn’t stay at Ascot. That’s the key thing for me. I just think he had an off day. His race went wrong from the word go. I think connections believe the same thing. He’s back for a second crack at the trip tomorrow in another valuable and high-profile race – and at 12s I think he’s worth backing to put that Ascot effort behind him….
He’s only had 7 runs on turf to date. There’s more to come from him yet and a mark of 100 is not beyond him in handicaps if he can sort out his starting game and find a little improvement at this longer trip. And – on that last point at least – I think he will. His dam side pedigree offers plenty of encouragement….
Connections are quite sweet on this horse. They expected more at Ascot. They expect him to improve as the season goes on. And they think he could well be an Ebor horse in the making. The bottom line for me is that he could be a little under-estimated tomorrow on the back of a single poor performance….
In a race where there’s quite a tight bunch in single-figures at the top of the betting, Kevin Ryan’s horse is the pick of the prices for me….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 finishers. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Just 10 go to post for the bet365 Handicap at 1.50 – a handicap for the 3yo horses over the 10f trip….
Dubai Honour turns out for William Haggas – a horse on my Watch List – and he’s got a big chance in my book….
Trouble is he’s got a big chance in everybody else’s book too and he’s been well found at this morning’s 9/2….
I wouldn’t put anybody off that horse. But my job in the big races is not to confirm what the market is already telling us, but to highlight what the market might be overlooking….
In this instance that horse could well be Hughie Morrison’s KING OF CLUBS – up at a general 10s & 9s this morning….
He’s done little wrong to date – improving for each of his runs this term. He bumped into – and gave weight – to an Andrew Balding horse last time on his handicap debut. But he will have learnt something from that and the extra furlong tomorrow will do him no harm at all….
Oisin Murphy take the ride. He’ll be doing the 8-5 for the first time in a good while. He’s 6 from 10 for Morrison this term and off a mark of 86 horse and rider could well conspire to add burnish to that record tomorrow….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 4. You can get 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Trophy (3.00 @ Newmarket).
In the bet365 Handicap (1.50 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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