Tuesday, 27th July 2021
Today is Day 1 at Glorious Goodwood. If you missed my selections for today’s big-field handicaps, you can catch up here….
My focus is already on Day 2 (tomorrow). I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….
The Met office forecast potential showers in the build up to the off this afternoon. But forecasts are not actualities and in the early hours of this morning the skies opened and dropped 16mm of rain onto the track – making it 55mm over the last 7-days….
The going is now described as heavy (soft in places) – and the non-runners on this afternoon’s card are starting to stack up….
Track officials expect a drier spell going forward. But you can’t bank on expectations – and the unsettled weather is going to add an additional layer of complexity (and difficulty) to proceedings this week….
Day 2 is a quiet one from our perspective with just the race that opens the card – the 12f handicap for the 3yos at 1.50 – appealing from a betting perspective….
We’re already down to 13 runners for that event – and if the course fails to drain sufficiently it’s not hard to envisage additional pull-outs….
But we work with what we’ve got and as things stand right now Roger Charlton’s PLEASANT MAN looks a fair bet at the general 10s….
He disappointed in his first couple of runs this term but a gelding operation in May produced a next-time-out career best at Salisbury on good to soft ground….
It was only a C3 handicap – a far cry from the G3 event he’d run in at Chester in early May – but it was a performance that suggested he’d taken a step forward for the gelding procedure….
Next time out at Ascot earlier this month he finished 4th of 9 in a C2 handicap. Disappointing on the face of it – but he wasn’t beaten far and they went at a really pedestrian pace most of the way before a sprint finish ensued in the closing stages….
In the end he wasn’t beaten far and finished as well as anything having been off the pace all the way under Kieren Shoemark. He kept on really strong and he left the impression that a stiffer test of stamina would have suited….
He won on debut on soft ground at Haydock last September. That assignment suggests that tomorrow’s surface is going to suit him better than it will some of the others. He’s a fair enough price….
Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally this morning. Note: it’s still early days and additional deals will emerge as the day goes on….
Nick’s contrarian picks….
To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon….
In the Unibet "15 To Go" Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
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Until next time. Stay tuned.