Friday, 30th July 2021
The week has flown by. Today is Day 4 of the Glorious Goodwood meeting….
And it’s a good day for handicap fans – with big fields going heading to post for the Golden Mile and the 2m4f+ handicap that gets proceedings underway this afternoon….
If you missed my bets for today’s races, you can catch-up here….
My focus is already on Day 5 (tomorrow). I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….
And Saturday is a good day with the Stewards’ Cup (3.40) and the Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (1.55) – the consolation race for horses that didn’t make the cut for the Stewards’ Cup) – both attracting maximum fields of 28….
The track continues to dry out. It was heavy on Day 1. It was soft on Day 2. It was good to soft on Day 3. For Day 4 it is good all over the track. Blustery showers are forecast for today and tomorrow….
Let’s crack on….
If pushed I could probably make a convincing argument for 75% of the runners in tomorrow’s Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (1.55)….
That’s the nature of the big-field handicap game. You’re dealing with large numbers of closely matched horses in a race designed (notionally at least) to produce a finish where they all dead heat….
On the right day – if conditions were ideal and everything were to fall into place – it’s probably fair to say they could all win….
…. and you can try and pick the winner. Plenty of punters do. Good luck to you – and to them. My preference is to dispense with miracle working and to simply focus on what’s practical….
My objective in these races is to identify a horse with plenty of positive features going for it and which is trading at a price that – in context with the wider betting – underestimates the potential effect of those positive features (in my humble opinion)….
It is BOUNDLESS POWER and Silvestre De Sousa – along with the fates – that I’ll be pinning my stakes to for this one….
The 4yo’s improved for joining Mick Appleby’s yard. He’s up from 75 at the start of the season to 89 now. But I doubt he’s finished progressing yet….
He produced a noteworthy effort last time at Ascot in the Betfred Heritage Handicap – his first go in a C2 against top drawer handicap opposition – finishing 5th of the 18 runners and beaten 2.75 lengths after enduring a slightly disturbed passage through the race….
That was over 5f, of course. He was doing his best work late on – fairly eating up ground once he was switched right, saw daylight, and asked for his effort. But the principals had already made their move by that point – and he was coming from too far back to trouble them….
He steps back up to 6f tomorrow – and that could be perfect for him. He’ll get that bit more time early doors and that bit more track for his finishing burst. The ground is going the right way for him too. He’s an in-form improver and the 16s about him is fair enough….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are up at 1/5 the first 7. Betfred are up at 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally. Note: it’s still early days and additional deals will emerge as the day goes on….
COMMANCHE FALLS has won 6 of his last 11 races over the last year or so and arrives at Goodwood tomorrow on a really progressive curve – he’s up from a mark of 73 to 100 across the same sequence….
All purple patches come to an end, of course. Handicappers that keep on winning eventually hit a mark that stops them in their tracks – but I don’t think that’s the case with this one. Not yet, anyway….
I think there’s more to come. Plenty more. Michael Dods hasn’t really gone to town with this 4yo yet. Across that 11 races I was talking about, he’s only raced once for winning prize money worth more than £10k….
Either Dods thinks his lad is a gaff-track/small purse bully – or he’s been keeping his powder dry until he’s ready to have a real crack at a proper pot. I don’t think you build up to a mark of 100 without having a go at a proper pot unless you reckon you’ve got some serious horse to go to war with….
Commanche Falls is sweetly drawn in stall 26 and his hold-up style is just about perfect for this contest. He’s fit, he’s in the form of his life, and he’s a serious player tomorrow. The 12s is fair enough….
I’m pushing the boat out for one of the biggest races on the handicap programme – and I’m going two-against-the-field….
The other one I want to back is MOTAGALLY at 20s. He’s trained by Charles Hills – winner of this race in 2 of the last 6 years – and he’s been campaigned sparingly this term with just two appearances since May and none since mid-June. He looks like a horse whose been targeted at this race from a long way out….
Shadwell’s number one rider Jim Crowley was absent for those two prep runs earlier in the season. But he’s back on the job tomorrow and with the year rolling on and this horse not having shown much on cut, I’d imagine tomorrow’s race is his principal assignment for the year….
If it turned up decent ground at Doncaster for the Portland, he’d have a big chance there. His best two performances to date have come at the in-between 5.5f trip. But you can’t waste a season hoping for good ground at that late stage of the year. I think tomorrow is Plan A – and the price is very acceptable….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill are up at 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 and 1/4 the first 4 generally. Note: it’s still early days and additional deals will emerge as the day goes on….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (1.55 @ Goodwood).
In the Stewards’ Cup (3.40 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back in your inbox next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
