Friday, 17th September 2021
There’s plenty to get through today with three big sprints up at Ayr this weekend – contested by an aggregate of 74 horses….
The Bronze Cup field will head to post this afternoon at 3.20. The Silver Cup will be run at 2.30 tomorrow afternoon with the stalls set to open on the Gold Cup field at 3.40….
These races are never easy, of course. But it would be no fun if they were – and weekends are all about trying to crack these fiendish puzzles with a ‘live’ contender at a price….
Let’s crack on….
At the prices I’m going to swing the bat at Roger Varian’s MUSICALITY. He’s up at 18s and 20s this morning and I reckon that’s an attractive price….
His best piece of form to date was registered at Newmarket last term – when he won a C3 handicap with a late surge. The handicapper put him up to a mark of 94 for that. He was clearly impressed….
It hasn’t been plain sailing since. He’s found the transition from 3 to 4 difficult. He did little or nothing in his first three runs this term – and was down to a rating of 87 before the addition of cheekpieces and a switch to the AW produced a bit of progress….
He’s had three runs up at Newcastle – and two of them were creditable. He doesn’t help himself sometimes with slow starts – but that’s more than factored into his price….
The ground at Newmarket last year was soft. But I’m not convinced he needs that kind of surface. I think what he does need is a fast-run 6f that provides a stiff test and he gets that tomorrow….
He’s down to 84. I’m certain he can do business from that perch. He’s towards the top of the weights, but the spread is minimal and that will suit the better quality horses….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
The Michael Dods trained Blackrod is a warm order for this race – and I can’t argue with that. He’s been in cracking form this term and he gets to run tomorrow off his last winning mark – with Jack Garritty booked to take off 3lbs….
Blackrod has obviously got a massive chance and he’s certainly in the right hands. Dods has a cracking record in these sprints at Ayr. But I can’t be having the horse in a 25 runner race at the 11/2….
Instead I’m backing WOVEN at 14s. Also trained by Dods, the 5yo has performed with credit since joining the yard from David Simcock’s team at the start of the season….
He produced a decent effort on yard debut; produced a big run at York in a big-field handicap in May; ran well at Newcastle in June; threw in a clunker at the same track in July; and then produced a very creditable effort behind Just Frank at Thirsk in August….
That one is fancied for the Gold Cup tomorrow and Woven wasn’t so very far behind him – especially when you consider he lost ground when rearing as the stalls opened….
He’s run well off marks in the 90s and a mark of 88 tomorrow is within his compass. With all eyes on the principal Dods runner, I reckon this one might just be flying under the radar….
Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Andrew Balding has won a couple of Gold Cups – albeit never with a 3yo – but he gives FIVETHOUSANDTOONE his handicap debut in tomorrow’s renewal and I reckon he’s got a better chance of going in than the 33s, 28s & 25s available this morning suggests….
He ran in the same Listed race at York as Great Ambassador last time out – a fact that will have trend slaves gnashing their teeth – and he ran well for a long way that day on terms that would have been different in a handicap….
He gave way late on for sure. But it was easily his best performance of the term and suggests this might well be a horse coming to hand….
He lost a fore shoe that afternoon at York – which would have inconvenienced him – but still had Stewards’ Cup runner-up Gulliver (a horse trading at half his price for tomorrow’s race) behind him at the post….
He meets that one on slightly better terms and is 4lbs better off with Great Ambassador – and I’m mindful that it was this weekend last year (at Newbury) when this horse took a big step forward in the Mill Reef Stakes….
He mixed in good company as a juvenile and was rated 110 at the start of the season. He runs off 102 tomorrow and if he can build on that York effort then he’s a player – more of a player than the price says….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Bronze Cup (Today, 3.20 @ Ayr).
In the Silver Cup (Saturday, 2.30 @ Ayr).
In the Gold Cup (Saturday, 3.40 @ Ayr).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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