Friday, 8th October 2021
It would probably take a madman to go into a Cesarewitch with a deep and heartfelt certainty that his selection will win….
With 34 horses going at it over a 2m2f trip – and plenty of those runners on protected marks and likely laid out for the job a long way in advance – there’s always a strong chance that at least one card in the pack will trump you at the showdown….
That said punters are pretty keen on the Willie-Mullins-trained M C Muldoon. And it’s not all because Mullins is looking to win the race – 3.35 at Newmarket tomorrow afternoon – for the fourth time on the bounce….
The horse has form. He was probably unlucky not to win the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting off 96 (he runs off 100 tomorrow). And next time out – his only appearance since – he won a few quid over hurdles in a handicap at the Galway Festival….
He’s not been overworked this season. Tomorrow’s race has most likely been the target from a long way out. And Ryan Moore’s booking in the saddle confirms the 6yo’s status as the flagship Mullins contender this time around….
Punters have been keen to wade in accordingly. He’s 5s this morning. He’s no certainty – the price tells you punters give him a 16.7% chance of winning – but in the context of the race he’s short enough for me….
At 6s and 7s Buzz and Calling The Wind are on the skinny side too – at least they are from my perspective. The upside of their prices is that they take a fair chuck of percentage out of the book and there should be value to be found further down the list….
Mullins has 5 in the race tomorrow. However certain the market feels about MC Muldoon’s prospects, Mullins isn’t relying on a single bullet to get the job done….
Looking at the prices this morning, MICRO MANAGE is seen as the rag of his quintet. At the general 20s and 18s the horse rates a bet in my book….
The 5yo has had just 8 races in 3-years and has obviously had some problems. But don’t underestimate him. He’s a class act – a Group-class prospect in his earlier days he ran in the Irish St Leger as a 3yo and had earlier been considered a possible for the Irish Derby….
He’s had some hefty breaks from the action on the track since then but Mullins has stuck with the horse and minded him patiently – a sign maybe of how he rates the horse….
He’s another that hasn’t been overworked this year. In February, he showed up well in a big-field maiden hurdle. Then, at the start of August, he won a little race 1m6f on the flat at Galway….
It’s low key stuff. No doubt. Mullins has kept this horse well under the radar. That Galway win didn’t necessitate anything like a best effort. He strung the small field out behind him from well within his comfort zone – and it will have served to sharpen him up….
I suspect he’ll be cherry ripe tomorrow for an assignment I think he’s likely been aimed at for a while. He’s high in the weights and carries 9-07. But when you think he’s performed under 2-stone more over hurdles on soft Irish ground, it’s not like he’s going to feel over-burdened….
He’s never actually won over 2m+ – but he’s gone close enough on his two cracks at the trip. And whilst Moore might be riding the favourite, the top flat rider in Ireland is on this one and that surely counts for a little something….
The bottom line is that Micro Manage is a dark horse at a big price – and that’s the kind of horse I want to back in this kind of race….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. You can get 1/5 the first 7 and 1/5 the first 6 generally….
LAUGH A MINUTE could well provide the answer to the puzzle presented by tomorrow’s Coral Sprint Trophy up at York (3.15)….
The Irish raider is prominent in the betting – more prominent than my usual kind of pick – but he can still be backed at a general 10s and that’s fair enough….
The low numbers have – by and large – been the place to be on the 6f strip at York this term. And horses that can sit behind the pace from that kind of track position have been going well….
The 6yo runs out of stall 2 tomorrow and is comfortable picking them off late on….
He’s run into a bit of form over the last month – producing a brace of competitive efforts in handicaps at the Curragh. Last time he produced his best effort for a while dropped to the 5f trip – where he caught the eye late on….
The 5f at the Curragh is stiff and the flat 6f on soft ground might well prove ideal for him tomorrow….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, Betfred and Boylesports are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Cesarewitch (3.35 @ Newmarket).
In the Coral Sprint Trophy (3.15 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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