Friday, 12th November 2021
Look out for me in your inbox tomorrow – when I’ll be focused on the Sunday card at Cheltenham….
Today the focus is on tomorrow’s card at the track – where the feature betting heat is the Paddy Power Gold Cup at 2.15….
A maximum field of 20 goes to post. The ground is described this morning as good (good to soft in places). The forecast from the Met Office is for dry and mild weather….
Truth is that price-hunting punters haven’t had the best of it in the Paddy Power Gold Cup across the years – with 37 of the last 49 winners sent off in the first four of the betting….
Right now GALAHAD QUEST sits just outside that top section of the market on 12s – but there’s scope for him to contract further in the betting we move closer to the race and I think he’s a decent bet at his current quote….
He’s only a 5yo and he’s only had 4 runs over fences and just 10 in total under rules, so he’s not the most experienced horse in the field….
But he’s showing signs of being a smart prospect for Nick Williams….
He produced an improved performance in a first-time tongue tie to win a novice handicap at Haydock on his final assignment of last season….
The form of that race has worked out okay with the 2nd, the 3rd, and the 5th of the 7 runners all subsequently scoring over fences….
And it was a very encouraging performance first-time-up at Wetherby this term – where he was 3rd of 10 and beaten just 2-lengths….
Galahad Quest moved nicely into proceedings under David Noonan from a position at the rear of the field….
The winner – always up front and on the pace – showed a lot of grit to stick it out from the front. Galahad Quest only gave best – and 2nd position – late on to a rival with a fitness edge….
He’ll be a sharper horse for the run and off a mark of 135 he surely has plenty of margin with which to work going forward….
Nick Williams is rolling the dice – and why not? A big race like this might just come too soon in a young chaser’s development. But that’s factored into the price. And you have to strike while the horse is hot….
And let’s not forget that Nick Williams has talked about this horse a ‘Gold Cup prospect’ of the future….
Maybe that’s overegging the pudding. Maybe his tongue was in his cheek at the time.
But he clearly thinks a little something of this horse – enough to fancy having a crack at a big pot off a low mark – one he’s sure to leave behind in time – and a nice racing weight….
And let’s not forget what we discovered yesterday. Jockey David Noonan – whose been on this horse for each of his last two runs – has a decent record in these big-field races over fences on the Old course….
The price is fair enough….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred & Boylesports….
Dan Skelton’s Proschema is the one to beat in the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle at 2.50….
The 6yo is race-fit having already been seen twice this term at Chepstow and at Wetherby. And his last time out effort in the G2 bet365 hurdle – where he got beaten only by Indefatigable on disadvantageous terms at the weights – is by far and away the best bit of form of any horse coming into the race….
Back down into handicap company and still rated only 145, the market has found the Skelton horse fairly easily. And you can’t argue with his status as favourite….
At the prices though, I’m prepared to take the hot-pot on with Fergal O’Brien’s ONAGATHERINGSTORM at 10s….
He had every chance at Cheltenham last time in a novice hurdle – hitting the front briefly 2 out before fading on the run in….
On the face of it that was perhaps a little disappointing. But he likely needed the run off a break of 161 days and I’m mindful that Fergal O’Brien’s horses weren’t exactly pulling up trees at the time….
O’Brien’s string is going very nicely at the moment though – with 10 winners across the last fortnight….
And the double-figure price might just underestimate the improvement this 6yo can find….
He’s only had 4 goes over timber and he’s one that’s open to plenty more progress yet off a mark of 130
If he’s come on for that seasonal reappearance he can run a bigger race than the market anticipates….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill are up at 1/5 the first 4. You can get 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.15 @ Cheltenham).
In the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (2.50 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Sunday handicaps. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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