Friday, 19th November 2021
There will be better weekends ahead for punters like me who appreciate multiple big-field handicaps to shoot at….
Next week at Newbury for example (I can’t wait)….
The card at Ascot this Saturday meanwhile is enough to make you burst into tears….
Take out the bumper that closes proceedings and the other six races have attracted just 36 horses between them – an average of six runners per race….
There are races to watch and enjoy at Ascot – I’m thinking of the G2s – but handicaps with single-figure fields just don’t do it for me. Not on a betting basis….
It’s better up at Haydock – but it could be a lot better still….
The Betfair Chase is a contest to enjoy. And a couple of the handicaps have at least scraped into double-figures in terms of runners….
But for me – where the betting is concerned – Saturday boils down to the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at 2.25….
Sixteen horses stood their ground at the final declaration stage – and they’ll head to post on better ground than we’ve come to expect at Haydock at this time of the year….
Some trainers must be on their knees at night right now – praying for a drop of rain so they can get a run into their winter horses….
I know Evan Williams is. It’s too quick underfoot once again this weekend for Secret Reprieve….
And it’s not just about getting a race into horses. Nicky Henderson hasn’t been able to get his horses out onto the grass gallops at home. And he won’t be the only one….
Moving on to tomorrow’s race – and my selection….
It’s never ideal to go up the official ratings on the back of defeats….
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO has gone up 7lbs from 129 to 136 for the two defeats he’s suffered this term – but there are grounds for concluding that he’s still well-enough treated….
At Chepstow he was unlucky not to win the Silver Cup. He got beat a length by Orbys Legend – who reopposes tomorrow. But if he’d got going a bit earlier in the race then he’d probably have won….
He was doing all his best work late on and made up an absolute tonne of ground on the short straight….
He meets his conqueror – who is shorter in the betting – on a pound better terms tomorrow. And over this longer trip there’s every chance he can turn that form around. Every chance….
The Phillip Hobbs horse is younger, more lightly raced and – on the face of it – open to more progression. But he hasn’t done the 3m trip – unlike Nick Gifford’s horse….
Next time at Newbury – in a lesser race – Didtheyleaveuoutto tackled the 3m trip for just the second time and found just one too good again. That was Stoney Mountain – winner of tomorrow’s race back in 2019. He too reopposes tomorrow afternoon….
It was a close run thing. My man was only 0.75 lengths in arrears to that one of Jamie Snowden’s. Once again he was doing all his best work in the closing stages having been held up early doors – while the Snowden horse had been right up with the pace from the get-go….
Didtheyleaveuoutto is 2lb better off with that one tomorrow. Every little helps I suppose. But I’ve never been a slave to the idea that being a pound or two better off against this one or that one makes that much of a difference….
I like to see some other feature or adjustment that can turn the tables. And tomorrow that something is the booking of 3lb claimer Kevin Brogan in the plate….
With the horse having gone up 7lb in the ratings for performances produced under 5lb claimer Niall Houlihan, you might think connections would stick with him or maybe put someone up who could claim more….
Instead they’ve booked Brogan – no stranger to JP McManus horses – to take off just 3lbs. It might be a case of taking off less weight but getting more jockey in the saddle as a consequence….
It’s his only ride of the afternoon and I very much doubt that horse and rider are turning out to make the pace for the other McManus horse – Flight Deck….
Didtheyleaveuoutto has only had the two goes at 3m+ - and the first of those was more than 2-years ago. He’s totally unexposed at the trip – and he proved conclusively at Newbury that he gets it strong….
I suspect he’ll be ridden just a little differently tomorrow – perhaps a bit more forward and perhaps with a little more confidence….
Whatever, I reckon he’s a player. The 16s & 14s about him is a fair price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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