Friday, 17th December 2021
Global Citizen would be the first horse you’d scrub from tomorrow’s Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot (3.35) – if you were a slave to the trends….
In 19 renewals of the race just one horse has managed to win older than 7 – that was Not So Sleepy last year as an 8yo….
At 9 years of age Global Citizen is the one horse in the race that the stats say is simply too old to do the business….
That may be the case but Global Citizen (priced up this morning at 25s) was rated as high as 159 just four hurdle runs ago – and considered a potential Champion Hurdle horse by his trainer….
Granted that was back in March 2019. He’s also had a few goes over fences in the meantime. Plus he’s had a wind-op. And he’s had a long break off the track ahead of this campaign….
He didn’t figure in the Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle at tomorrow’s venue back in October – but he did show more signs of life in a lower grade at Doncaster last month under a 5lb claimer and in first-time cheekpieces….
He was beaten 8-lengths into 2nd that day over an extended 2m3f trip that might have been a bit too far for him….
Of course, he’s likely not the same horse as he was. But Ben Pauling clearly still has some faith in him….
He’s back down to 2m tomorrow in a race for a proper pot – there’s decent money for the winner and the two that finish immediately behind…..
Off a mark of just 136 – and stripping fitter for a couple of prep runs – I wonder if he might still be good enough to get competitive at a price….
I spent a fair it of time wondering about Global Citizen. But you can’t back them all and in the end I’ve opted to back the Irish raider – Pat Fahy’s DROP THE ANCHOR – at the general 14s….
He handles a big field well – he shows that when winning the Ladbrokes at Leopardstown in February. Next time he was 7th of 25 and beaten just 3.5 lengths in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
He was a little unlucky that day and could have been closer still. He got squeezed up entering the straight and lost valuable momentum at a key go-forward stage of the race – but finished off well….
He seemed to enjoy the better ground at Cheltenham – the type he’ll get tomorrow – and produced his performance off an adjusted mark of 146. That’s the same mark he runs off tomorrow. He’s a real player….
He’s not been seen over hurdles sine Punchestown in April – when nothing went right for him. But he had a blow-out on the flat in October and I expect this has ben something of a target for him….
I think it’s significant that Drop The Anchor makes the trip over from Ireland to contest the same race in which his owner already has the favourite running for him. He might be the second-string – but he is underestimated at the prices….
The 7yo has his own big stat to overcome tomorrow. As usual he’ll be ridden by 3lb claimer Simon Torrens who is coming over from Ireland – but no winner in 19 renewals has been ridden by an apprentice….
I have no concerns about that though. It’s the kind of headline stat that strikes me as having no real meaning. I take the view that a claimer can win this handicap just like any other – given the right horse to ride….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, Sky Bet & Betfred are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
There’s a fair turn out for the Tommy Whittle at Haydock (2.40)
David Pipe’s Remastered – going so well in the Ladbrokes Trophy when crashing out – is the one to beat. The market hasn’t missed him at 11/4….
I can’t argue with the price – but I can’t be backer. My job at ATC isn’t to reflect what the market is already telling you – but to present an option that the market might be wrong-headedly overlooking at the prices….
It’s been a slow start to the season for Evan Williams who has plenty of horses that need deeper ground….
His promising – and expensively purchased – young chaser FADO DES BROSSES has the wraps taken off for the first time this season at Haydock tomorrow and he’s a fair price at 18s to go well on heavy ground that will suit….
Of course, the absence from the track is a bit of a worry. But he’s one in the field who looks well-set to go the right way in the rankings and – with 6 places on offer with Sky Bet and 5 elsewhere – he represents a little each-way value in a race where the layers have a whole tack of horses in at 7s to 12s….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3.35 @ Ascot).
In the Tommy Whittle (2.40 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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