Monday, 27th December 2021
There’s quite a few I could make a case for in this afternoon’s Welsh Grand National….
The market has the right horses in at the top of the betting – in Secret Reprieve (despite his lack of a prep run) and Irish raider The Big Dog….
Then there’s Mighty Thunder, previous winner Potters Corner, and Iwilldoit who won the trial for today’s race earlier this month….
Prices of the first-named pair put to one side for a moment, I wouldn’t put anybody off backing any of these horses….
But you can’t back them all. Sooner or later you must pin your colours to the mast and – at the prices – I’ve decided to stick with HILL SIXTEEN who ran such a good race for me in the Becher Chase at Aintree earlier in the month.
That was just his second go for Sandy Thomson and he went very close that day from 4lbs out of the handicap….
He’s 8lbs out of the handicap this afternoon on account of Native River topping the weights off 166. Ordinarily I’d be worried about that. But in my book Hill Sixteen’s mark has been and remains on the false side on account of his poor sequence of runs ahead of joining Thomson….
In other words he’s got margin that some of the other horses running out of the weights don’t have. He’s back in form, I don’t think he’s out of it and this morning’s 16s is a fair price. He’s a dark horse….
He was out the back early doors at Aintree. I’d be hoping he’s ridden a bit closer to the pace today because it’s not so easy to make up late ground at Chepstow. And he can do it from closer up too. He was on the pace for his first run for Thomson and was also ridden that way when with Nigel Twiston-Davies….
The Welsh Grand National wasn’t originally the intention for Hill Sixteen. But he’s been pleasing Thomson and he’s well worth a crack at a big pot over this kind of trip.
He and Snow Leopardess were well clear off the rest over 3m2f at Aintree and had things gone slightly differently he’d have won that. He was doing very good work late on….
He makes the long trip all the way from the Scottish borders on his own today. Thomson has no other runner at Chepstow and it’s worth mentioning that the trainer shows a 27.3 point profit to level stakes when sending just a single horse to a meeting….
Of course, stats are better at telling us what happened before than they are at telling us what is yet to come, but the numbers are encouraging. They tell us Thomson believes his charge can run a race that gets him into the money – making the trip and the investment involved worthwhile….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies this afternoon…. In the Welsh Grand National (2.50 @ Chepstow).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
