Friday, 31st December 2021
At the general 16s & 14s SIMPLY THE BETTS is a ‘live’ dark horse for tomorrow’s Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2.00)….
Each of his best four career performances have been produced at the track (at tomorrow’s trip on tomorrow’s kind of ground) – the highlight being his win in the Timeform Novices’ Chase in January 2020….
Granted he was running off a mark of just 140 that day. Tomorrow he must race from a perch almost a stone higher in the rankings….
But he won the Brown Plate at the 2020 Festival off a mark of 149. And in November’s Paddy Power Gold Cup he was 6th of the 19 that ran – beaten 5.75 lengths – off 154….
You might think that last outcome would kind of support the view that he’s a little too high in the weights at the moment….
But he only gave best late on that day – and he would almost certainly have needed that race because he hadn’t been seen on the track for almost a year….
He was also having his first run for Paul Nicholls who was still – and will still be – finding his way with the horse….
Next time Nicholls sent the horse to Aintree to contest the G2 Many Clouds Chase – his first go at the 3m trip. Nicholls clearly thought the horse was worth a crack at the longer trip on a flat track….
It didn’t work out though. Simply The Betts was pulled up before the last. He was beaten too far out to conclude that the trip found him out. Perhaps the race came too soon after Cheltenham. This is a horse that was always given time between races by previous trainer Henry Whittington….
That performance at Aintree rates as a little black mark against the 8yo. But he’s had almost a month to recover and Nicholls wouldn’t send him if he weren’t straight or showing the right signs at home….
You’re always taking a little something on trust with a horse that misfired last time out – but that little doubt is factored into the price. And horses do bounce back all the time….
In hindsight it seems remarkable that Simply The Betts was shorter in the betting at the off at Aintree than Dan Skelton’s Protektorat – who had finished like a train in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; who ultimately won the Aintree race; and who now sits handily enough in the betting for the Gold Cup….
Maybe at 7/2 Simply The Betts was something of a false price. Or maybe it was a reflection of some real expectation behind the horse?
Who knows? But with principal yard jockey Harry Cobden taking the ride on the horse for the first time I reckon this horse is more a competitive proposition than the prices suggest….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Art Approval is prominent in the betting for the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle at 2.35 tomorrow – up generally at 9/2….
Fair enough. He won a nice big-field C3 handicap at Cheltenham last time out in November….
But that was over 2m5f on good ground and tomorrow’s trip of 3-miles on what looks set to be a softer surface is another test again off an 8lb higher mark….
Back in 4th and 11.5 lengths in arrears that last day at Cheltenham was Mel Rowley’s MY BOBBY DAZZLER….
That one was well-enough beaten but has since been sent to Aintree over 3-miles – where he stepped up on his previous efforts considerably….
He won easily that day – on soft ground – putting plenty of daylight between himself and the opposition. It was a taking performance – one for which he’s been raised a stone to a mark of 132….
Maybe he didn’t beat much. It was a C4 novice handicap. Maybe the outcome flattered him. Maybe he saves his best for Aintree – where he’s now 3 from 3….
But he produced a big step forward on the ratings and maybe he’s just a different horse at 3-miles than he was at the intermediate trips. At 10s he’s twice the price of Art Approval – whilst being proven over the trip and on the ground….
And whilst Aintree suits, he was none too shabby in the that race Art Approval won at Cheltenham. He was doing his best work late and can be seen to better effect still tomorrow on account of the additional yardage….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (2.00 @ Cheltenham).
In the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (2.35 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all for today. Back on Tuesday. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Happy New Year. Stay tuned.
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