Friday, 18th February 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
Before we get to the race I’m targeting this weekend – something that might be off the market radar….
This time last year nobody went into the weekend in better form than Venetia Williams – she’d banked 15 winners since New Year’s Day with her handicap chasers doing by far the best of the business….
It’s much the same story this year – only that bit better. Who says trainers are not creatures of habit?
Since January 1st Williams is 26 winners from 96 runners @ 27% – pretty much as good as it gets. Her handicap chasers are 17 from 62 @ 27.4% – with 50% making the first 3….
And it’s not like the yard is just cleaning up in the bread and butter races either. Over the last month Williams has won 9 races worth a 5-figure sum to winning connections….
In Britain and Ireland only powerhouse trainer Willie Mullins has won more such races. He’s notched up 13 – but required more than twice as many runners to produce that tally….
In the saddle, talented Charlie Deutsch is 20 from 67 at a shade under 30%....
You’d expect his figures to look good – given the yard’s form and his role as principal jockey. His are the headline figures. He gets plenty of plaudits. And deservedly so….
Meanwhile – off the radar – Harry Bannister is proving a reliable deputy option for Williams. Just 7 rides for the yard to date – but 4 of those won (producing 16.6 points of profit to level stakes for punters)….
It’s the kind of record that will only to lead to more good opportunities….
And Bannister gets another one tomorrow in the shape of Christopher Wood in the Dingley's Promise Handicap Hurdle (3.00) at Ascot – the 7yo’s first run for the yard since leaving Paul Nicholls….
In the same race Charlie Deutsch rides the favourite Good Risk At All for Sam Thomas. It’s not unusual for Deutsch to ride for Thomas – though he’s never ridden this horse before….
You might infer from all this that Deutsch doesn’t much fancy Christopher Wood. You might be right too. But I doubt Bannister is looking at it that way. And nor should he….
If I were him I’d be looking at the situation as another opportunity to shine on a horse for a good yard. Christopher Wood is potentially well-handicapped on 141 and produced a decent enough effort last time – just 6-lengths behind a horse now rated 156 and slated for the Champion Hurdle….
A heavy surface at Haydock tomorrow for the Grand National Trial (2.40) will suit Ben Clarke’s THE GALLOPING BEAR down to the ground – if you’ll excuse the pun….
Dire underfoot conditions and an extreme trip (which he was racing over for the first time) were part of the set-up that saw the 9yo produce a best-to-date performance over fences last time at Lingfield in the Surrey National under top weight….
That took his record to 3 wins from 3 goes over fences. And you could make the case that the 9yo is an inexperienced chaser in this kind of race against some well-tested and tried opposition– doubly so because that Lingfield race was his first outside of hunter chase company….
But connections haven’t been shy with targets. The Welsh Grand National was considered before he scoped dirty. And the G2 Peter Marsh was also in the reckoning before they chose not to run him because he’d have been out of the handicap….
Of course, picking targets isn’t the same thing as hitting targets. But connections clearly think he’s up to doing a job at a decent level. He’s still only rated 140 after that win at Lingfield and he’ll be under a very nice racing weight tomorrow which has to be an advantage on deep Haydock ground over 3m4f+….
He did make a couple of mistakes at his fences that last day at Lingfield. But he was a deserved winner – racing prominently; sticking to his task well when going toe-to-toe with Samuel Jackson in the straight; and staying on real strong at the end….
You’d imagine he learned plenty from the race – and his profile has got some serious go-forward momentum which a number of his rivals tomorrow lack. There’s no doubt he’s in form; he’s match-fit; and he’s turning out in better shape than some of his rivals….
He’s up at 10s generally. There were better prices about earlier in the week. But he still makes appeal….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Grand National Trial (2.40 @ Haydock)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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