Friday, 25th February 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
Before we get to the races I’m targeting this weekend – something that might be off the market radar….
It’s a big day and a good card at Kempton tomorrow and the historic record tells us that we should expect Paul Nicholls to produce a winner or two….
No handler has produced more winners than the Ditcheat man on this specific card across the last 7-years….
He’s saddled 12 winners from 60 runners with another 13 horses hitting the frame. That’s a win strike rate of 20% and a total place strike rate of 42%. Good numbers in any context….
And it’s a year-on-year thing. He’s had a winner on the card in each of the last 7-seasons. And he’s had 2 or more winners in 4 of those years….
Nicholls has 9 runners on tomorrow’s card. The horses of most interest – according to the statistical record – are those ridden by Harry Cobden….
The record of Nicholls & Cobden in combination on this Kempton card reads 6 winners and 5 placers from 26 runners….
Cobden rides six horses for Nicholls tomorrow – Pleasant Man (1.50); Pic D’Orhy (2.25); Iceo (3.00); Enrilo (3.37); Dargiannini (4.10); & Spago (4.45)….
If I were to empty the old change jar this evening, I might be tempted to roll those horses up into 15 doubles. The historic record suggests it might just prove worthwhile….
The last three horses Sam Thomas saddled all won and I reckon OUR POWER is a big price at the general 16s to keep things rolling along for this up-and-coming yard in the Coral Trophy at Kempton tomorrow (3.37)….
He won his first race over fences on his 2nd go in November at Wincanton before winning again in a small field at Huntingdon in January – having fallen early doors in-between times at Doncaster….
He’s had decent bit of time off ahead of tomorrow’s assignment – which will be his first go at winning proper money, his first go against chasers that aren’t novices and his first go at the 3-mile trip….
A lack of experience could be an issue – but that’s factored into the price – and Sam Thomas is a pretty good judge of what he’s got at his disposal….
The likelihood is that this 7yo is going to rate higher than 136 in time and if his jumping holds up in this hotter and deeper race – and he stays the 3-miles – then he could prove better handicapped than quite a few of these tomorrow….
You never know for sure with a trip until the horse has a crack at it. But he stayed on strong at Huntingdon and there is stamina on his dam side….
As I say, I think he’s underestimated at the price and he’ll benefit from a top rider full of confidence in the saddle – Charlie Deutsch….
He’s best known for his exploits on horses trained by Venetia Williams – but he’s getting some handy rides off Thomas. This season trainer and jockey in combination are 5 wins from 13. And this one could be another big runner for the pair….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, Sky Bet and Betfred are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
LAKE VIEW LAD hasn’t set the track on fire this season but he’s been aimed at tomorrow’s Eider Chase at Newcastle (3.15) and I like the look of his set-up – enough to back him at the general 20s which looks like a big price….
He’ll be going to the Scottish Grand National after this – a race in which he finished 7th beaten just over 10-lengths under a big weight on decent ground last year….
When you consider he was rated 155 that day and will run off 142 tomorrow – just three defeats later – you can understand why he’s on the radar. He’s rated lower over fences than he is over hurdles at the moment….
He ran okay for quite a way last time in the G2 Peter Marsh at Haydock before getting tired. He didn’t have his customary cheekpieces on that day and his trainer said after the race that he might benefit from some help from the handicapper….
Well he’s 4lb lower tomorrow than he was that day. And the cheekpieces are back on. So too is Sean Quinlan – a good exponent around the Newcastle track….
Given the horse is set to carry 11-10 and given that Nick Alexander has been saying what he has about the horse’s mark, you might think he’d put a claimer on – like he did for the Scottish Grand National….
Instead he’s gone for Quinlan – a rider with more wins under his belt at Newcastle than any of the opponents he’s riding against tomorrow. It feels like Alexander is doing what he can to cover as many bases as possible….
The horse has a little to prove, he’s 12 and he’s carrying weight. But he’s dangerously well-handicapped, the set-up is interesting and older horses have frequently run better than the market thinks they can in this race over the years….
All things taken together I’m happy to swing the bat at the price….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Coral Trophy (3.37 @ Kempton)….
In the Eider (3.15 @ Newcastle)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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