Dark horses for Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival....

Thursday, 17th March 2022

Dark horses for Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival….

It’s Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival – but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….

I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to bag the best of the prices about my selections….

I sent out my advice for Day 3 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….

Today the focus is on Day 4 – where the feature events for handicap fans are the County Hurdle (2.10) over the 2m trip (2.10) and the Martin Pipe for the conditional jockeys over the 2m5f trip (5.30)

Without any further ado….

• In the County Hurdle....

You don’t need me to tell you that these big-field handicaps are tough puzzles to solve – and it doesn’t get any easier as the week goes on….

A 26-runner County Hurdle (2.10) over the minimum trip is a cue to start drawing names out of a hat for some punters…. 

But I love tackling these races and for me it’s all about having a strategy. In this one, I want something progressive and already battle-hardened….

Novices and second-season hurdlers have won 16 of the last 19 renewals. But I’m not interested in horses that have been dominating in small-field novice events….

I want horses that know what it is to be in the heat of battle – because that’s what’s on the agenda in this race tomorrow. It’s going to be no place for faint hearts….

After drawing a line through the fancied runners (and scratching other horses I don’t like for one reason or another) I had it whittled down to a shortlist of five – Tritonic, Cormier, Gua Du Large, First Street and I Like To Move It….

You can’t back them all and the one I’m going with is the improving Nigel Twiston-Davies trained I LIKE TO MOVE IT at the general 14s….

Last time out he was beaten a short-head in the Betfair Hurdle which is one of the most valuable handicap hurdle races on the British programme – on just his 5th run….

As big-race seasoning goes – that race takes some topping and is unlike anything plenty of tomorrow’s opposition will have encountered to date….

The place to be in that race was held-up off the pace. I Like To Move It was the one horse that ran his race and made the frame from the front end. And I think it’s fair to say – other people have already said it – that he’d have won that race had it been at Cheltenham….

He likes Cheltenham (he’s 2 from 2 over hurdles there – albeit in small fields) and the stamina-favouring New course should suit him. So too the extra half-furlong….

I expect the ground to dry out a bit – but juice won’t bother him. And while he went up 4lb for getting beaten at Newbury – never ideal – I know this horse is very highly thought of at home and likely has more to come yet at just 5-years of age…. 

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & Betfred are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, Coral, 888sport, Unibet, Boylesports & Ladbrokes are 1/5 the first 6….

• In the Martin Pipe....

COBBLERS DREAM at 16s is my pick for the Martin Pipe (5.30)….

He was last seen winning a competitive Lanzarote at Kempton – beating 18 opponents by 5.5 lengths and more….

There were good horses in that race and several have come out and scored subsequent wins – the form is working out well….

It was the 6yo’s fifth race over timber and he’s improved for each and every appearance to date….

The handicapper put him up 8lbs for the victory. Every ounce of that was deserved. But he’s still rated just 136 and there could be more to come yet….

The trip is ideal. A bit of juice in the ground is no problem and I anticipate a big run under Jack Andrews who won on him at Doncaster earlier in the season….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred, Boylesports & 888sport are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….

• The final word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the weekend action….

Until then….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd