Thursday, 7th April 2022
Aintree’s Grand National Festival kicks off this afternoon – but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….
I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to bag the best of the prices about my selections….
I sent out my advice for Day 1 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….
Today the focus is on Day 2 (Friday) but before we get down to business – a word to readers joining us for the week who may be unfamiliar with the way I work and who may have expectations that I won’t deliver on….
I don’t tell you how much money to bet. I don’t work to a ‘points’ system. Nor do I have a staking plan. And I leave it up to you as to whether or not you back a selection each-way….
Why I don’t do what I don’t do is explained here….
The bottom line is this: I put up my selections. It’s up to you how you back them – if indeed you are backing them….
Let’s crack on….
KILLER CLOWN at 14s is my primary pick for tomorrow Topham at 4.05….
He’s improved for a tongue tie this term – winning two from three since it was fitted. Last time at Kempton he won a decent handicap in comfortable and taking fashion – producing a career-best RPR….
He’s up to 148 on the official rating scale now – but deserves every pound of that assessment….
He’s no experience of the National fences and you can never be certain how horses will take to them. But trainer Emma Lavelle believes Killer Clown has the scope to deal with the obstacles – and he jumped nicely on that last day….
He wouldn’t want it too soft. But there’s not too much rain forecast and I’m hopeful he’ll get a surface on which he can shine….
He’s one of the form horses coming into the race and he could still be ahead of the handicapper….
In a 30-runner field I’d rather be two-against-the-field than on a single horse each-way and my second pick is Nicky Henderson’s FANTASTIC LADY at 14s….
She’s lightly raced for a 7yo but she’s taken to fencing this term – winning a brace of handicaps from marks in the 120s before being tried in a G2 novice contest last time….
She came out of that last race with credit despite being beaten 7.5l – showing a good attitude and sticking to her task when the pace put her up against it. This return to handicap level will see her to better effect….
She’s only had four goes over fences, is still progressing, and looks sure to prove better than her mark of 137. She’s another who will need to take to the fences but that’s the case with plenty of these and she’s jumped well enough to date….
She’s the Henderson second-string horse on paper – but I don’t let that bother me. She’s here on her own merit ….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. bet365 & Betway are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
In the Alder Hey & Aintree Handicap Hurdle at 1.45 I looked long and hard at the fast-improving Speech Bubble. But I’m not sure the ground is going to be as deep as she’d like it. And there’s already been money for her this morning – taking her into a single-figure price….
My preference is for BALCO COAST at the general 11s. He was well-fancied for the Imperial Cup at Sandown but pulled-up on the softest ground he’d ever encountered – with the rains coming late….
Previous to that he’d been branded a non-stayer after running in a G2 over the 2m4f trip at Cheltenham….
But he went deep that day. He and the winner were at the top of the hill and just yards from the post before Balco Coast’s stamina reserves gave out ….
I think he’ll get the trip at a flatter venue tomorrow and I note that Nico De Boinville has chosen to stick with the 6yo rather than ride the slightly more fancied Fils D’oudairies – who ran a nice race on debut for the Henderson yard last time….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & Betfred are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
In the Park Palace Ponies Handicap Hurdle at 5.15 I’m opting for LIVELY CITIZEN at the general 10s….
He ran an absolute cracker in the Imperial Cup – finding just Suprise Package too good. That one ran another good race in the County Hurdle just 6 days later….
Take Surprise Package out of the Imperial Cup and Lively Citizen was a 7-length winner of that race….
If you look at it like that he certainly wouldn’t be running tomorrow off just a pound higher and if he’s retained his form he can produce another big performance from right at the bottom of the weights.
He’s ridden as per usual by Archie Bellamy. One of the advantages of having a 7lb claimer as your regular rider is that in races like this – confined to conditional jockeys – you’re an established pairing rather than a horse and jockey getting to know one another….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Topham (4.05 @ Aintree)….
In the Alder Hey (1.45 @ Aintree)….
In the Park Place Ponies (5.15 @ Aintree)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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