Friday, 6th May 2022
Tomorrow’s feature race for handicap fans is the Victoria Cup at Ascot (4.05) – where 28 horses will go at it up the 7f straight….
We’ll get to my dark horse selection for that race in a moment….
First, a reminder – in case you missed it – that I distributed my advice for this afternoon’s Chester Cup yesterday. You’ll find that here….
Second, a heads-up that next week brings us the Dante meeting at York – which runs Wednesday to Friday. I’ll be targeting the top-level big-field handicaps across all three days….
But that’s next week. Right now, we’ve got tomorrow’s race at Ascot to deal with….
It’s definitely paid to be drawn high in the 20 runner races up Ascot’s 7f straight over the past 5-years or so – with not too many horses making the frame from single-figure starting berths….
Of course, there’s no concrete certainty to cling to in that last statement. Anything can happen – and frequently does….
We’re dealing with big-field handicaps, after all – a division of racing custom-designed to make a total fool out of anybody daft enough to get involved from a betting perspective….
But if you are going to play, then the percentages do have to be considered and the field does need to be whittled down one way or another – and the draw is my starting point….
Cast you mind back to last season’s renewal of this race and you might recall that Sir Mark Prescott’s Sunset Breeze was a heavily fancied runner. He ran well enough on the day but it didn’t pan out – he was 10th of 27 beaten 4-legnths. Perhaps the lack of a run heading into the race played a part in the defeat. Who knows?
That won’t be a problem with Prescott’s candidate this time around – ROYAL PLEASURE who can easily be backed this morning at prices ranging from 25s to 33s….
The 4yo’s improved for a wind operation back in October – producing a career-best all-weather performance when winning at Chelmsford in February and improving on anything he’d done previously on turf at Doncaster last weekend on seasonal debut….
That was over a 6f trip that looks sure to be inadequate in time. He was doing all his best work late on – and he will surely be sharper for last week’s outing. It’s interesting that Prescott sends this improving type back out again so soon. Interesting enough for me to open the shoulders and swing the bat at the price….
Royal Pleasure is nailed on to improve again from a mark of 95. Whether or not tomorrow is the day remains to be seen. It’s certainly the exception rather than the rule for Prescott to be out chasing the money at such an early stage in the season. At least that’s the received wisdom….
A closer look at the stats this morning reveals that the last 33 horses to race for Prescott in a race worth £10k+ to the winner in the month of May produced 9 winners and 6 placers. Punters backing all those horses on the nose would be 16 points to the good….
Stats are just stats, of course. But – at the very least – those figures offer a little encouragement. They tell us Prescott doesn’t waste decent ammunition at this time of the year and that Royal Pleasure is unlikely to be turning out to make up the numbers….
On the downside – and I am duty-bound to report my thinking from all angles – regular rider Luke Morris heads to Nottingham to ride one for Prescott and Thore Hammer Hansen (who isn’t getting so many rides from Richard Hannon these days) comes in for what looks like a typical ‘spare’ ride….
You could easily interpret that as a negative – even if Hansen did ride a 100s shot into 4th for Prescott at Chelmsford the other day….
But all things taken together – and with the price in mind – I’m choosing to overlook that detail. This horse doesn’t need to be at Ascot tomorrow for this race. It’s not like he needs the run. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of other options for this horse in the weeks ahead. He’s in this race tomorrow because that’s the plan. And – at the price – I’m happy to swing the bat….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. bet365 are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Victoria Cup (4.05 @ Ascot)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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