A dark horse for Day 3 at York….

Thursday, 12th May 2022

A dark horse for Day 3 at York….

Today is Day 2 of York’s Dante meeting – but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….

I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to try and bag the best of the prices about my selections….

I sent out my advice for Day 2 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here. Today the focus is on tomorrow’s Day 3 card….

A field of 12 goes to post for the Paddy Power "I Love Steak" Stakes over the 10f trip – they break from the stalls at 3.00….

Let’s get down to it….

• In search of mistakes....

I’ve been a little disappointed with some of the field sizes in the big handicap races this week at York….

I know I bore on about this subject on a reasonably regular basis but it has a big impact on the game – or at least on the way I choose to play it….

To a large degree my strategy is based on identifying pricing errors – horses I reckon the market is underestimating….

In a proper big-field handicap the market is prone to making more of those types of errors than it does in the smaller-field races….

In the smaller field races the market is generally more accurate in its collective assessments – and finding justifiable bets at the juicier prices is much more of a challenge….

And in some smaller field events there are occasions when looking down the market feels a bit too much like reaching for something that you don’t really have the right levels of faith or belief in to justify a bet….

• In the "I Love Steak" Stakes – 3.00....

Tomorrow’s target race is very much one of these affairs and I would certainly understand a punter deciding to bet the favourite Rogue Bear – a horse I’ve put a little focus on this term….

He hit the frame in the Lincoln and the Spring Cup – both run over a straight mile – off 87. He’s up to 89 for the second performance and you’d think he’s still generously treated if the step up to a turning 10f trip suits….

I can’t be backing a favourite at 3s though. Always opposing the favourite is one of the rules of this column – and I wouldn’t be able to hold my head up in church on Sunday if I were to break it….

But I don’t really fancy anything in the nether reaches of the market and for my money the one to oppose Rogue Bear with is BELLOCCIO at 6s and 11/2….

Of course, the 4yo is not a typical ‘dark horse’ pick for this column but in a smaller field like this one – where several horses have a little something to prove – pragmatism is no bad option….

Belloccio was repeatedly campaigned in high-level races last term as a 3yo – without success and without really threatening to break through in Group company….

He was gelded in the August and not seen again until he went to France for a conditions race in November – where he flopped on heavy ground having been sent off favourite….

This term started in April with a debut on the AW at Kempton – where he dropped into the handicap division for the first time. He wasn’t much fancied at 22s – but ran out a game winner….

Perhaps he’s strengthened up. Perhaps he should have been forgiven the heavy-ground performance in France. Perhaps the gelding procedure has had the desired effect. Who knows?

He’s up to 101 in the ratings now but I reckon there’s more to come yet from David Menuisier’s charge. It’s possible he’s still going to be a Group horse in time and – if that’s the case – tomorrow’s assignment shouldn’t be too much for him….

Menuisier doesn’t send too many to York from his West Sussex headquarters. But he does well with those that do go – the last 25 sent North produced 5 wins. Those sent off at 9s or shorter are 4 wins from 11….

Belloccio is the only runner for the yard at the track tomorrow. It’s a long trip North, the diesel won’t be cheap, and I think he’s sent with intention. I can live with the price on that basis….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….

• The final word….

That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd