Friday, 1st July 2022
Sinjaari ran a big race from an unfavoured part of the draw at Royal Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup….
Beaten 3.5 lengths into 5th of the 29 that ran – he’d have been that much closer had he been drawn up the middle with the rest of the principal finishers….
He clearly caught the eye of the layers – and he’s favourite for tomorrow’s Coral Challenge at Sandown (2.25). You can’t get better than 11/4 about him this morning….
Lion Tower is another that hasn’t been missed. He’s put in a sequence of decent performances this term – including a win last time – and he’s only up 4lb from the mark he started the season on….
Much of his good work has been done at York. But if he can transfer his recent form to Sandown then he’s going to be knocking on the door. He’s done well on the right-handed course at Musselburgh – so the omens are positive for punters minded to back him at 11/2….
3yo Checkandchallenge – with William Buick booked – falls into the ‘could be anything’ category….
He’s had just three runs to date – the last of those a well-down-the-field finish in the 2000 Guineas. Tomorrow’s race represents a significant drop in class….
It’s hard to be dogmatic about where he is on a mark of 108 – but market vibes are positive. This unknown quantity saw money overnight and trades at 11/2 this morning….
They’re the market fancies – and easy to make a case for. But my job is not to run with the crowd. My job is to dig out a dark horse that can out-perform market expectations and give punters a run for their money at a price….
Frequently wrong, often close, sometimes right – but always in doubt. That might be the motto for this column….
It would be easier – on some levels at least – to put up more fancied horses. The strike rate would almost certainly improve as a result. But who needs me for that? And where would be the fun in it?
No. I stick with what I do – win, lose or draw – and let the chips fall where they may. I’m taking a chance on CHANCE tomorrow – there’s a little bit of 16s about for him and 14s more generally….
On a mark of 98 you could make the argument – certainly based on his last few runs – that the handicapper has the 6yo in his grip….
But I’m not so sure. He’s previously shown signs that he can go close off this kind of mark. I thought he was a little unlucky in Meydan in January 2021 – when he was short of room in the late stages….
That was a slow run race that turned into a bit of a sprint – so it’s not conclusive form. But it was the last time Chance ran for a serious prize and I’m interested that he runs for a big pot tomorrow – first time up this season….
He’s been off for 154 days and easier assignments could have been found to ease him back into the game – were a march towards full fitness required….
But he’s run big races off long breaks before and it could be that he’s been primed for a proper tilt at this tomorrow under James Doyle – whose won on him previously. He’s run well before over course and distance – and he won’t mind the ground….
I’m prone to intuitive bets. I like a price. And I don’t mind swinging the bat. Take it or leave it – Chance carries my dollar tomorrow….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill & Betfred are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally….
There’s rain forecast today at Haydock, some more overnight and a little tomorrow….
By the time they go to post for the Old Newton Cup (3.15), the ground could well be soft. It certainly isn’t going to be firming up from the current good to soft….
One who won’t mind the ground is Andrew Balding’s SOMETHING ENTICING and she’s the pick for me at this morning’s 12s….
Few handlers have a better record when targeting the decent handicaps at Haydock and this 4yo filly can add lustre to Balding’s record tomorrow….
She’s up 15lbs since the back end of last season but she’s only been with Balding for two runs since leaving David Elsworth….
The first of those she probably needed. Last time at Goodwood she picked up some black type in a Listed event – beaten by a horse (who now has a clutch of G1 and G2 entries) with whom she was disadvantaged at the weights ….
Back down to handicap level tomorrow and running over 12f for just the second time – a trip that looks fair set to improve her – she is a fair price to progress again….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Coral Challenge (2.25 @ Sandown)….
In the Old Newton Cup (3.15 @ Haydock)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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