Dark horses for the Irish Cambridgeshire....

Friday, 26th August 2022

Dark horses for the Irish Cambridgeshire….

It’s a dire weekend in this country for C2 big-field handicap punters – dire….

The 7f handicap down at Goodwood is as good as it gets….

That used to be a race for which you could rely on 16+ runners turning out….

…. but the last three renewals attracted fields of 12, 8 and 9….

…. and this year 11 runners go to post….

It could be worse. But it could be a lot better too. And – like any punter – if I’m not getting served up with the action I want at home then I’m going to be looking in other directions….

This weekend that means focusing on the Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh – where 27 go to post at 4.15 tomorrow afternoon….

An Irish target isn’t the norm for this column. But Ireland might well become a more frequent focus of attention if that’s where the best big-field handicap betting options are to be found going forward….

• In the Irish Cambridgeshire – 4.15....

As with most proper big-field handicaps tomorrow’s Irish Cambridgeshire looks on paper like a wide open affair….

…. loads of horses closely matched in ability….

…. many running against each other for the umpteenth time having produced all permutations of possible outcomes in those previous encounters….

…. and it’s easy to make a case for at least a dozen – and I’m being conservative….

For me it’s about finding something I can make a decent case for at a price and CELTIC CROWN is a taking option at the general 16s….

It’s 99 days since Joseph G Murphy’s mare was last seen – when winning a good handicap over a mile on the New course at tomorrow’s track….

That was just her third run for the yard and her first at that kind of level – and she did it well….

I don’t know if the subsequent break from racing was enforced by some kind of setback….

…. whether she’s been held back specifically for a shot at this race….

…. or whether this race is being used as a prep for the G3 she’s entered up for at Gowran Park next month….

But she runs off a mark of 88 – just 4lbs higher than that last winning mark – and I suspect there’s more to come from her yet….

W J Lee is booked for the ride – his first go on the horse. You can read into that what you will – or what you won’t….

But last week he was riding at York in the Ebor on heavily fancied Earl Of Tyrone and is clearly a man who can be entrusted with a ‘live one’ in a big handicap….

Perhaps this is one of those rides. I don’t know. Not for sure. But there’s enough margin in the official mark and enough juice in the price to tempt me to swing the bat….

And with bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Boylesports paying 1/5 up to 7 places – backing her each-way isn’t beyond the pale. William Hill, Betfred & Betfair Sportsbook are paying out on the first 6….

• Two-against-the-field….

That’s not the route I want to take though. I’m backing two-against-the-field – win only – and foregoing the chance to play for the scraps….

I know some readers think I’m breaking one of the Ten Commandments by backing two horses in the one race – and I’m braced for the brickbats and the gnashing of teeth….

But I do what I do – and you can go whatever way suits you. We’re none of us bound at the hip. The win money is where it’s at and in a field of 27 I want two running at it for me. That’s the bottom line….

My other pick is STAR HARBOUR at the general 16s….

Trainer Adrian McGuinness has a clutch of horses entered in tomorrow’s race – and I could make a case for almost all of them….

But you can’t back them all and the 4yo is the pick. He’s looked for a while like a horse capable of landing one of these big mile handicaps and I expect him to produce another big performance tomorrow on a track he likes….

He’s been there or thereabouts in multiple big-field mile handicaps at the Curragh. He was 5th of 27 in this race last year, 3rd of 26 in the Irish Lincoln in March, and 3rd of 18 in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap in June….

In other words he’s been knocking on the door at the Curragh – and he advertised his continued well-being when not beaten far in another big-field handicap at Galway last time….

Of course, finishing down the field proves little beyond the fact that a horse can get beaten. And he may well get beaten again tomorrow. But sooner or later one of these races is going to fall right from him – and the 16s is a fair price about tomorrow being that day….

• The final word….

That’s all for today. Back next time….

Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd