Wednesday, 14th September 2022
Today I’m looking at the draw on the straight at Ayr – and its impact on previous renewals of the Bronze Cup, Silver Cup, and Gold Cup….
Before we get to that there’s a betting heat to be considered on tomorrow’s card at the Scottish track – the C2 Kilkerran Cup over 10f….
William Haggas doesn’t send too many up to Ayr – but he’s won with 8 of the 14 he has sent over the last 5-years. His Al Mubhir – the youngest horse in the field – heads the betting at 7/2….
You can see where the market’s coming from given the 91-rated 3yo is up against a clutch of exposed rivals. He looked good on his handicap debut at Goodwood last month – a run he’s entitled to come on for….
But he’s only had four goes under rules and this is going to be a different proposition against 13 more battle-hardened and seasoned opponents. He might well take it all in his stride – but for me he’s opposable at the price….
I’m swinging the bat at FAYLAQ. Once upon a time the 6yo was trained by William Haggas but moved to Ewan Whillans after losing his way – but he retains ability and he’s produced a couple of promising back-to-back runs heading into this….
At Hamilton in August he ran a big one in the Silver Cup – 4th of 15 and beaten 1.75 lengths – and would have been closer still but for having to weave through horses from the rear….
At Doncaster last week he handled the step down to 10f with no issues. He was 4th of the 11 and beaten 3.75 lengths. But that margin of defeat overeggs the pudding. He was finishing off strong before getting cut-up and eased down in the closing stages….
He’s showing the right signs and on a mark of 87 – a full 20lbs below his peak mark – he’s potentially very sweetly-rated….
Right now only William Hill are up with prices. No matter. Their prices tell us whereabouts everybody else is going to be….
When the other firms go up, I’d take 8s and bigger with anything bigger than 12s a proper bonus. And some of the bookies will be paying out on 5th place….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my dark horse bet…. In the Kilkerran Cup (3.00 @ Ayr)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
The Bronze Cup (Friday), Silver Cup and Gold Cup are run up Ayr’s 6f straight....
Connections will be thinking about where they’d like their horses to start from – a low, high, or middle stall. Punters will be considering the same issue – figuring out which part of the track might prove advantageous....
Some will use Friday’s Bronze Cup as a reconnaissance mission for Saturday – hoping to secure advance intelligence. They’ll be watching closely as the race unfolds – hoping to identify favoured parts of the track....
Part of the contrarian approach at ATC is to look at information other punters aren’t looking at – or to look at it from a different angle....
And I thought it might be interesting to view previous editions of the three sprints collectively and look at how individual stalls performed...
The exercise might bear some fruit. And it might not. We won’t know until we look....
There’ve been 12 renewals of the Bronze since 2009 (the 2017 edition was abandoned), 18 editions of the Silver, and 19 Ayr-run editions of the Gold….
That’s 49 races in total and 50 winners – the 2018 edition of the Gold produced a dead heat....
The table below shows the performance of individual stalls – in terms of wins and placers produced....
I’ve included the 6th horse (in races with 20+ runners) as a placer – plenty of firms offer those enhanced terms....
Here’s how it breaks down....
If you want a ‘magic stall’ then 4 and 8 are strong contenders having produced 5 winners apiece....
If you want the ‘most-competitive’ stall then 15 is interesting – with 2 winners and 17 placers from 49 runners at a total place strike rate of 38.8%. Stall 4 scores high on this measure too....
But that’s fun and games. More statistical anomaly than something to rely on. Better to look at stall numbers in blocks – low, middle, and high. But we’re doing it a little differently….
We used to get 28 runners in these race. Not now. Maximum field size these days is 25 and we’ll consider the figures thus: low (stalls 1 to 8), middle (stalls 9 to 17) and high (stalls 18 to 25).
The results appear below....
Horses produce win and place performances from all parts of the track. There’s no overtly obvious stall advantage on view....
Having produced 21 actual race winners – and winners being the name of the game – you could argue the low side of the draw is the place to be....
Perhaps – but here’s something else to consider….
The table below highlights the performances of stalls 1 to 5 and stalls 21 to 25 – the top- and the bottom-5 stalls on Ayr’s 6f strip….
Those 10 stalls produced 21 of our 46 winners – and plenty of placers. What this tells us is that being drawn on a wing – close to a rail – is no bad thing….
I’m not sure what – if anything at all – I’ve proved or unproven with these figures. Probably not much, truth be told....
But that’s how it is with these kinds of exercises. You pan the water and see what emerges....
Sometimes you find nuggets you can use. Occasionally you’re not much wiser for the experience….
Most times you just get bits of intelligence that won’t point directly to winners but which give you information to factor into your thinking....
That’s probably where we are today....
That’s all for today.
Back next time. Stay tuned….
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