Dark horses in the Balmoral....

Friday, 14th October 2022

Dark horses in the Balmoral….

William Haggas is slugging it out with Charlie Appleby for the champion trainers title – and tomorrow’s Champions Day card at Ascot will play a big part in the outcome of that race between them….

The headline battle out on the track will come in the Champions Stakes – where Baaeed (trained by Haggas) and Adayar (trained by Appleby) lock horns over the 10f trip….

There’s a neat synchronicity to that end-of-season tussle. The top two trainers in the country send out the top horses in their respective yards to scrap it out for a pot worth £734k+ to the winner….

Clearly – in a championship title race defined by money won – the Champions Stakes will have a big say on how things turn out….

But every penny might ultimately count and the £200k on offer in the last race on tomorrow’s Ascot card – the Balmoral Handicap (4.40) – shouldn’t be sniffed at either….

Charlie Appleby hasn’t managed to find a runner for that one. Haggas – on the other hand – has four entered with three certain to run as it stands this morning….

• In the Balmoral....

Haggas is in sparkling form right now….

My back-of-the-envelope calculations this morning tell me that his horses have beaten more than 70% of their opponents over the last 10 days….

I can tell you that 50% is a par baseline measurement on that scale (at least that’s how I see it) so not many strings are going into the weekend in as red-hot form as the Haggas contingent….

And that gets my antenna twitching about MONTATHAM – up at 16s….

He’s not been seen on the track at all this season. He’s not been seen since he produced a disappointing effort – albeit at a massive price – in this same race last term….

But he’s here. Perhaps because he’s Baaeed’s lead horse or a preferred travelling companion. Or maybe he’s having a run out to blow away some cobwebs. Perhaps his participation is an afterthought. Who knows….

But he runs off a mark of 102 – 7lbs below his peak mark last term – and that’s a mark from which he can almost certainly get competitive….

Yes, he’s 6. Yes, he’s clearly had his problems. Gaps in his track record tell you that much. But he does go well fresh, he does handle Ascot and he has shown a liking in the past for a big field….

He was 2/23 over track and trip in the 2020 renewal of the Royal Hunt Cup before beating 16 home and winning the Clipper Logistics at York a few weeks later – off a mark of 104….

As I say – his yard is flying and looking to bank every penny of prize money it can get its hands on tomorrow. Montatham certainly possesses relevant back class and if he’s a card up the Haggas sleeve – fit, healthy, and primed to produce at the first time of asking – then he’s a proper dark horse….

There are the usual ifs and buts, but I reckon he’s worth a swing of the bat – and he’s my NAP selection for readers who like to back one horse per race be it win or e/w….

• Two-against-the-field….

Personally, my preference is to be two against-the-field and my second pick is another Haggas runner – the filly BASHKIROVA up at 10s….

You couldn’t make the case that she was impressive last time at York in August on good to firm – but she is better than that and more than held her own against the fillies in pattern class races earlier in the summer….

She’s one of the more lightly raced participants in tomorrow’s field and as such open to plenty of improvement – especially on more autumnal ground. She’s won on ground with cut….

She steps down from G3 level and runs in handicap company for the first time tomorrow. With some classy form already in the book, her mark of 104 does not put the tin lid on her – and she’s a fair price at double figure odds….

• If you’re playing each-way: Multiple firms are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6.  

• The final word….

That’s all for today….

I had intended to play in the Dash at Catterick – but having looked at the race in detail this morning I can’t really see past the favourite and I’m giving it the swerve….

Back on Monday. Stay tuned….

Meantime – put the kettle on and enjoy the racing….

Against the Crowd