Friday, 4th November 2022
Whilst the ground on the National course at Aintree is on the soft side and the going for the November Handicap at Doncaster is heavy (soft in places)….
…. the underfoot conditions at Wincanton are described this morning as good (good to firm in places)….
With not much rain forecast between now and the off in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at 1.50 tomorrow conditions look ideal for Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY – who can be backed at the general 12s this morning….
He’s one of those horses that needs better ground. His season tends to start in the late summer, then he takes in an early ‘proper’ season target or two when the ground accommodates before having a crack at something half-decent in the Spring….
That’s the programme again this time around. He’s had a couple of races at Worcester and Warwick in August and September. In the Warwick race first-time cheekpieces helped to produce a much improved performance – one I’d like to think has set him up nicely for tomorrow’s assignment….
He likes Wincanton. He produced his career-best performance at the track in October last year. He went on to take in last season’s renewal of the Badger just 13 days later – and was fancied enough. But he was never travelling and connections said the race came too soon for him….
They haven’t made that mistake this time around. He’ll turn out having had a decent break from his last outing. And he’s very nicely rated on 136. He raced in this last time off144 and he can put that 8lb reduction in his mark to good advantage tomorrow….
Of course, horses tumble down the rating scale because of sub-par performances. But they can come good again and go the other way. That Warwick performance was encouraging and at a double-figure price Irish Prophecy can go well tomorrow….
e/w terms = 1/5 the first 5 with Sky Bet & 1/5 the first 4 generally….
The bookies are taking no chances in the Grand Sefton with five of the 15 runners trading at 7s or shorter this morning….
You could make a case for any of them….
Two For Gold is the class act – whose presence means eight horses are out of the handicap proper. Lifetime Ambition has been talked about as a horse for these fences for a while now….
Senior Citizen has a track record of handling these big obstacles with aplomb. Broken Halo runs for the in-form Nicholls yard. You get the picture….
But my job is to dig one out at a price – to find an alternative to the shorties. One who can run a better race than the market anticipates. In this race that one is AL DANCER running for Sam Thomas at the general 9s….
He’s been a funny horse. He was decent over hurdles and he served notice as a novice that he was going to be no slouch over fences – producing three 150+ performances from five goes….
Early in his second season he placed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and looked like he was set to kick on from a mark of 154. But then the wheels came off and he had a sequence of runs – during which time he joined Sam Thomas from Nigel Twiston Davies – where nothing went right….
But then the cheekpieces were applied at Chepstow in February. And the tongue strap was added at Newbury in April – where the 9yo produced his best performance in 18-months when running a close 2nd to Lalor….
If his problems have been solved – as those last two performances suggest – then Al Dancer is dangerous tomorrow on a mark of 144 – 10lb below his career high….
He’s got a cracking record fresh. He’s got top man Charlie Deutsch in the plate and if he takes to the fences then he’s a ‘live’ one at a reasonable price….
e/w terms = 1/5 the first 5 with Sky Bet, William Hill, and Paddy Power & 1/5 the first 4 generally….
I don’t know why FARHAN has been switched from John Butler’s yard to Phillip Kirby’s – after Butler had landed two big handicap pots in four runs with the horse….
Only the owner can tell you about that. But I reckon the horse is a big price at 18s for one that’s already won two big-field handicaps (one of those this race last year) and will handle conditions as well as any tomorrow afternoon….
On a mark of 98 he’s just 5lb higher than when winning in good style at York earlier in the season – and Ryan Sexton negates that with his 5lb claim. He’s drawn out wide. But he was last year too. And so was Calling Wind who finished 2nd….
He got beat last month in a G3 conditions race at Ascot where he was plenty up against it at the weights. I can draw a line through that – and if nothing else it will have sharpened him up for this….
In short I reckon Farhan is a big price for a horse that’s looked strong and very progressive in the big-field handicaps he’s tackled over the last 12 months….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 and 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (1-50 @ Wincanton)….
In the Grand Sefton (2-11 @ Aintree)….
In the November Handicap (3-13 @ Doncaster)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Finally: if you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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