Thursday, 24th November 2022
Shearer and Paddleyourowncanoe are the top 2 in the market for tomorrow’s 3.40 at Newbury – the Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Hurdle over 3-miles….
Both failed to finish at Cheltenham last time out in the handicap hurdle won by Chris Gordon’s Annual Invictus at the November meeting….
…. Paddleyourowncanoe fell four out and hampered Shearer who then unseated his rider….
The pair were first and second in the betting on that day too – Shearer on account of a 2/2 record heading into the race and the Skelton horse on account of being so well handicapped on his old form….
The race-ending incident was too far out to say with any degree of certainty where either horse would have finished. Neither had really been put into the race at that stage.
…. but the market clearly expects one or the other to gain compensation tomorrow….
Last time out winner Steal A March – representing a Nicky Henderson yard creeping its way into the kind of form we expect – is the other horse fancied to play a big hand….
Fair enough. I wouldn’t put anybody off backing any of the trio. But my job isn’t to simply play it safe and follow the market in. You can go that way under your own steam – if you’re so inclined….
My job is to take a contrarian perspective and to dig out a dark horse that can run a big race at a tastier price….
The one that takes my interest is the horse that looks like the Paul Nicholls third-stringer in the race – TIME TO TINKER….
He got well-beaten first time out at Newton Abbott – stepped up to 3m2f for the first time. But Nicholls was clear before the race that he likely needed the run and would be a sharper horse for it….
The interesting thing is that he was supposed to go chasing afterwards. But he turns out here instead. Perhaps a 4lb drop in the weights for the defeat has tempted Nicholls to keep him over timber for a wee bit longer….
Like I say – he’ll be fitter for his seasonal debut. He’s got Harry Cobden back in the saddle – that’s a plus. And the cheekpieces – left off last time – are back on….
He could well give a better account of himself than expected – chasing the most valuable pot he’s ever raced for….
At the general 16s I’m prepared to swing the bat….
e/w terms = William Hill & Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my dark horse bet…. In the Coral Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Hurdle (3.40 @ Newbury)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. I’ll be back tomorrow….
If you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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