Monday, 26th December 2022
At one stage it didn’t look like WAYFINDER would get a run in tomorrow’s Welsh Grand National at Chepstow (2.50)….
He’s been trained for the race by Rebecca Curtis but last week he needed 20+ horses to come out – and the upcoming Mandarin Chase at Newbury appeared to be a more likely destination….
But the race has cut up and – in the end – the 8yo makes the cut for tomorrow’s contest quite comfortably – carrying just 10-9….
Stats are stats – and they tell you more about what has happened in the past than what is about to unfold in the future….
…. but it’s worth noting that 17 of the last 22 winners went to post under a burden of no more than 10-10….
Weight is a significant consideration in this gruelling test of stamina and Wayfinder is just where you’d want him to be in the handicap….
He’s also got form at Chepstow. The undulating track seems to suit his style of running – his 6 appearances at the place produced 4 wins and the majority of the prize money he’s banked to date….
I’m prepared to draw a line through his last time out effort in the trial for tomorrow’s race – run at the track earlier this month – and for which he was sent off favourite…..
He’s a candidate for improvement at the trip and at 25s he’s an interesting second-string runner for his yard….
I see why Venetia Williams’s Enzo D’Airy is favourite for the Coral Get Closer To The Action Handicap Chase at Chepstow (1.05) after his win last time over course and distance….
But he’s 6lb higher in the rankings this time, without the benefit of a 5lb claimer in the saddle, he’s running in a much better race against much better opposition than he’s faced before – and he’s vulnerable to the bounce factor having been off the track 653 days before that last win….
Of course, horses are trained to make a monkey out of soothsayers like me – and he could well go out and progress again under Charlie Deutsch. The market says that’s exactly what he’s going to do….
But – at the prices – I prefer the chances of Richard Hobson’s FUGITIF at the general 9/2. The 7yo has been doing his business in better races than the Williams horse….
The step up in trip is a positive in my book and he’s just 2lb higher than when chasing home Amarillo Sky at Cheltenham on seasonal debut back in November….
That one has gone up the handicap 11lbs since – having won again in good style at Newbury – and pays a proper compliment to Richard Hobson’s horse….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the Welsh Grand National (2.50 @ Chepstow)….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill & Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the Coral Get Closer To The Action Handicap Chase (1.05 @ Chepstow)….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports & Betway are 1/5 the first 4. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back on New Year’s Eve with bets for Cheltenham on New Year’s Day….
Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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