Friday, 10th February 2023
I could make a case for multiple horses in tomorrow’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury at 3.35….
Filey Bay could prove well ahead of a mark of 131. Paul Nicholls has two live chances with Rubaud and Hacker Des Places….
Willie Mullins won’t be sending Icare Allen over so that he can enjoy the scenery. Nigel Twiston Davies has a great record in this race and his Chewy demands respect….
Last year’s winner Glory And Fortune carries top weight – but he isn’t implausibly handicapped on 148….
But you can’t back them all and what I want in this race is something progressive, something potentially well-handicapped and something that can be backed at a decent price….
After all, this race has a habit of chucking up surprises. We’ve had 9 winners sent off at 14s or bigger in the last 19 editions of the race….
…. and 16 placers sent off at 16s or bigger. In 2019 we saw a 100s shot hit the frame and one hit the frame at 66s in 2020….
The one I like at the prices is Gary Moore’s YORKSEA at the general 16s….
Moore’s won this race three times before and gone close with three additional horses. He shouldn’t be underestimated….
But I’ve hardly heard mention of Yorksea in the build-up to the race – and I reckon he’s overpriced….
He hasn’t been seen since winning at Fontwell in December – where he produced a much improved performance….
He was ridden clear of the rest approaching the final obstacle and then kept on strongly up the run in to win by a ready 6.5 lengths from the second – with the rest miles behind….
He’s up to a mark of 126 – but that won’t put the lid on him. He’s better than that – and I reckon he’s one of the best-handicapped horses in the race tomorrow….
The second horse that day at Fontwell has franked the form since with a win. And I reckon Gary Moore has kept his 5yo fresh since with this specific target in mind….
Yorksea won’t mind the good ground one bit – and I see him producing a big run at the price under Niall Houlihan who takes off a useful 3lb….
Only William Hill are up with prices for the deliveringyournetzero.com Handicap Chase up at Uttoxeter at 2.45….
No matter. Their prices alone serve to show us the shape of the market. We know how it works….
…. the other firms will go up later, but they won’t stray too far from William Hill – and we can use this first set of prices as our guide….
And the guide reveals that William Hill’s racing desk want the lightly-raced and unexposed horses onside….
…. with Mister Coffey, Bangers And Cash, Jimmy The Digger and Guetapan Collonges all up as co-favourites at 5s….
So far, so obvious. Plenty of analysts will come down on the side of one of those horses – but finding cover in the crowd is not the job here at ATC….
The point of my existence is to dig a little deeper in the market – and to find a horse that can give us a run for our money at a bigger price….
DE RASHER COUNTER is the pick of the prices for me at the 12s. Emma Lavelle’s charge may be 11 now but he was the 2019 winner of what is now the Coral Gold Trophy….
Granted, he’s not hit that level since. But he did have a long period on the side lines. And his first two runs this term were his best since that Newbury triumph….
He ran with credit in a hot race at Kelso – which has produced winners since. And he found only a rejuvenated and very well-handicapped Ramses De Teillee too good at Warwick the time after….
Things didn’t work out next time at Aintree over the Grand National fences in the Becher – but he wouldn’t be the first horse not to fire over those obstacles….
…. and back over conventional fences – at a track where he won well as a novice over tomorrow’s trip – he can run a big race….
On top weight he’s obviously vulnerable to progressive young guns. But he’s not so badly handicapped himself on 145….
… and we know he acts on the track and that he’ll like the ground. He could go better than the prices suggest….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.35 @ Newbury….
e/w terms = William Hill, Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 2.45 @ Uttoxeter….
e/w terms = William Hill, bet365, Unibet, Betway & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 4…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
Just the two bets today….
I think the good ground at Newbury will suit Does He Know in the Denman Chase….
…. but Kim Bailey is out of form and I think they’ve struggled getting work into horses with all the weather issues….
There’s no point betting for the sakes of it. We’ve got plenty of opportunities coming up. So, I’ll stick with what I’ve got….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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