The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Cheltenham....

Tuesday, 14th March 2023

The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Cheltenham….

Betting advice for this afternoon – Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival – was distributed yesterday. View it here….

I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….

Sometimes I get the value. Other times it goes the other way – like so much else in racing….

But Festival week has started okay. Monbeg Genius – put up yesterday at the general 12s – is now 7s & 13/2….

I used to spend a lot of time on Betfair Exchange – grafting to pinch points and produce bets to nothing….

…. bets with no downside because the stake is protected….

Those days are behind me now. But I still enjoy knowing I got on at 12s and could lay at 7s – locking in a bet with 5-point upside and zero downside….

Because I go out early, we are always a little ahead of the game….

The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 1 – and I’m already thinking about Day 2….

…. which means the Coral Cup, the Grand Annual & the Champion Chase….

• The Coral Cup….

BEACON EDGE at the general 14s is my pick of the prices in the 26-runner conundrum that is the Coral Cup (2.50)….

He’s rated 147 but remains potentially well-handicapped given he was rated 158 two years ago – after finishing 4th in the Stayers’ Hurdle….

He started off okay over fences – he won the G1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse – but lost his way….

It’s taken a couple of runs over hurdles to get him back but last time out he produced a significantly improved performance behind Blazing Khal in the G2 Boyne Hurdle….

…. the same race he won ahead of that Stayers’ Hurdle performance a couple of years back….

I always wonder with first-time headgear – Meade fits a tongue-tie for the first time tomorrow….

…. but given the way the horse finished off his race at Navan (despite being no match for the front two) he’s entitled to the benefit of the doubt….

If Meade has him back – then he’s got him back on a nice mark. Back over fences – where he’s clearly not suited – he’d be rated 151. So 147 has simply got to be a nice mark over timber – one he can capitalize on….

They say he likes better ground – but he’s acted on all sorts and I’m prepared to roll the dice with him….

• The Grand Annual….

In the Grand Annual (4.50) I’m having a proper swing of the bat….

I’m backing Henry D Bromhead’s DANCING ON MY OWN at the general 66s & 50s – with most firms paying out 1/5 on the first 6 places….

He’s been battered both times he’s been seen this term. No excuses….

… and he was never able to figure in this race last year – when the ground was really heavy….

In between times though, the 9yo took in the Red Rum at Aintree – finishing 2nd and beaten 2.5 lengths….

He ran a cracker that day and jumped well from the front – exactly the kind of performance that is required tomorrow….

I see why he’s the price he is. But I think he’s too big….

He’s a proven big-field performer at the trip. He can mix it in a big-field race like this. And he could well run deeper than his price suggests….

• The Champion Chase….

I’m already committed in the Champion Chase (3.30) – with NUBE NEGRA advised at the general 33s and 25s on 1st February….

I said this: “….but here he is in February 2023…. still only 9-years-old…. still having raced just a dozen times over fences…. and available at 33s and 25s in the betting for the big one. I can’t help but think there’s value in that price….”

You can read my thoughts in more detail here – but on the eve of the race Nube Negra is up at a general 18s and 20s….

I don’t know if he’ll quite get his ground. But I’m very happy with the price I got on at….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd