Wednesday, 12th April 2023
Aintree’s Grand National meeting gets off to a gentle start tomorrow….
…. at least as far as handicap punters are concerned….
…. with just the Red Rum Handicap Chase to focus on at 4.40….
Sam Thomas has been very effective in targeting these big handicap chase pots in his short career to date….
His 19 runners in qualifying events worth £40k+ to winning connections have produced 6 winners and 5 placers….
That’s a fine record – and one he can build on in tomorrow’s race….
He’s got two entered up….
At first glance, Before Midnight looks interesting at a double figure price….
He’s dropped down the weights to a handy looking mark….
…. but he’s not been finishing his races off the way I’d like him to….
…. the headgear experiment last time appears not to have had the desired effect….
…. and I think the ground has gone against him….
GREY DIAMOND is much more what I’m looking for – and the 8s is fair enough given the shape of the race….
He arrives at Aintree in rude form having produced a clear career-best last time in a C3 handicap at Haydock on soft ground over tomorrow’s trip….
He’s up 7lbs for that – but he won comfortably enough and I reckon there’s still more to come from him….
…. for a start I can’t see Sam Thoms being daft enough to blow his mark in exchange for a mere £8k….
That was a prep for this – in my estimation – and I’m betting accordingly….
The 9yo comes into the race fresher than most at this stage of the season. He’s only had the three runs and it’s difficult to escape the view that he’s been saved for this….
He was 5/18 in the race last year – beaten 9.5 lengths – off mark of 134. He runs off 142 tomorrow – and so will need to be a much improved performer….
But I think he will be. He wasn’t wearing the tongue tie last term. With that kit on in all three runs this term he’s produced better performances – at least on the RPR scale – than at any other point in his chase career….
…. and maybe it will just be that bit softer for him this time around….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bet for tomorrow…. In the 4.40 @ Aintree….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my betting advice for a busier Day 2 of the meeting….
Stay tuned.
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