The pick of the prices at Ayr & Newbury....

Friday, 21st April 2023

The pick of the prices at Ayr & Newbury….

There are not many guaranteed to stay the trip in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr (3-35)….

Kitty’s Light is one that will – and he’s nicely handicapped on his 2nd in the race last year….

Monbeg Genuis has progressed with each run this term – but is yet to go beyond 3m1f….

His jockey thinks 4-miles will suit – but you never know until you try….

…. and at the prices – Monbeg Genius is 4s and Kitty’s Light is 5s –I’d opt for Christian Williams and Kitty’s Light if I backed fancied horses….

My job – albeit an entirely self-imposed role – is to dig one out that can outrun a fancy price….

Neil Mulholland’s Lord Accord might be nicely handicapped on 135 – and he’ll appreciate a sounder surface….

He’s up at 33s – a big each-way price….

…. but I can’t draw much encouragement from his run in the Kim Muir last time….

Sandy Thomson’s Flower Of Scotland is another one I considered. She’ll stay –for sure….

…. the 8yo won the Borders National over 4m at Kelso in December….

…. then caught the eye in February’s Edinburgh National at Musselburgh – a track that wouldn’t have offered a sufficient test of stamina….  

…. before having a decent spin over hurdles back at Kelso – where connections were maybe focused on protecting her chase rating….

All that said she’s 6lb out of the handicap – and I wonder if the ground has gone against her….

• The pick of the prices….

My money is on THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE at the 20s….

Earmarked for next season’s Grand National, Max McNeil’s horse wasn’t unfancied for the Coral Gold Trophy at Newbury in December – but unseated at the first….

Straight after that race connections pinpointed tomorrow’s race as his next target….

…. and he will have been prepared accordingly by Nicholls – who won the race with Vicente in 2016 and 2017….

Next time at Warwick – with nowhere else to go – the heavy ground was against the horse. The Ultima at Cheltenham last month would have been part of the horse’s prep for tomorrow….

Heading into the Coral Gold Trophy – where the horse ran off a mark of 151 – Nicholls said he wished the horse was running off 145….

Threeunderthrufive goes off 147 tomorrow – so you’d imagine Nicholls is that much happier.

…. and at 20s his charge is almost twice the price he was for the Newbury race – which you’d think is the tougher assignment….

He had a first-time tongue-tie at Newbury. Then first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham. Tomorrow there’s another adjustment – as connections zero-in on the perfect set-up – with both those bits of kit fitted together for the first time….

The 8yo hasn’t yet shown the improvement you’d expect from a second season chaser out of the Nicholls yard….

…. but tomorrow is the big day he’s been aimed at. He’ll need to stay but – if he shows that improvement tomorrow – he’s surely there or thereabouts….

• In the Scottish Champion Hurdle….

Dan Skelton’s L’eau Du Sud was the last one I scratched and I’m sticking with Nicholls in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.25) and backing RUBAUD at the general 13/2….

The hood did the job last time at Kempton in the G2 Dovecote….

…. helping the horse settle better than he’d been doing….

…. enabling him to produce his best performance yet….

…. and to land his biggest win to date from the front….

Clearly encouraged, Nicholls targeted the horse at Aintree and the G1 Poundland Novices’ Hurdle….

…. but the ground wasn’t right that day and Nicholls pulled him out….

This is plan B – but that could be to his advantage….

He’s back in a handicap – he fancied enough for the Betfair Hurdle in February off 130 but got lit-up and raced too freely….

…. and he’s pretty much the same price for tomorrow’s race as he was for that much tougher assignment….

He’s going chasing next year, so whatever he does tomorrow would be bonus for connections. They’re rolling the dice – but 135 is surely a workable mark for an improving and lightly-raced 5yo….

… especially now they’ve got him to settle better….

He enjoys a flat track, he’ll get to get his ground, and – whilst he may not be able to dominate from the front – settling better early will help Harry Cobden with tactics….

• In the Spring Cup….

The ground is on the soft side for the Spring Cup at Newbury (2-25)….

…. and ATRIUM is interesting at the 10s….

…. given he’s up against quite a few that are untested on worse than good….

…. and some that appearing for the first time this season….

He bombed out at Doncaster in the Lincoln at the start of the month….

….but that was on desperate ground and you can draw a line through that….

His trainer quite fancied ahead of the meeting at Doncaster – despite a career-high mark of 100….

…. not least because he’d already registered a win over course and distance….

Well, he’s won at Newbury too – on the straight mile – and he can run a big race tomorrow at the price….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

Back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd