Friday, 23rd June 2023
Today is Day 4 of Royal Ascot….
…. which for handicap punters like us means three handicaps….
…. the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes – a 12f handicap for the 3yo+ horses….
…. the Sandringham Stakes – a straight mile handicap for the 3yo fillies….
…. and the Palace of Holy Rood House Stakes – another 3yo handicap but this time over 5f….
I sent out my betting advice for this afternoon’s races yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….
I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….
Sometimes it comes off. Other times it doesn’t….
… but because I go out early with my selections, we’re always a little ahead of the game here at ATC….
The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 4 – and I’m already thinking about Day 5….
…. which means the Wokingham – up the 6f straight….
…. and the Golden Gates Stakes – another 3yo handicap but this time over 10f….
It’s good to firm all over the track this afternoon….
Let’s see what’s what….
I can’t let FRESH go unbacked at the general 16s for tomorrow’s Wokingham at 5.00….
He absolutely loves Ascot – running half his career starts at the venue….
…. winning a brace of valuable big-field 7f handicaps, placing in two more and finishing 2nd in the 2021 edition of the Wokingham….
Last year he was sent off favourite for tomorrow’s race and whilst he won the contest between the horses drawn in single digit stalls….
…. the real race unfolded on the other side of the track….
You could look at the ground tomorrow and see it as a negative – Fresh reportedly doesn’t like it firm and prefers some cut….
…. but he did win the International Stakes on good to firm last May at Ascot and – as trainer James Fanshawe said after that race….
“It is funny, this track, as sometimes you get horses who don’t like firm ground who can get away with firm ground here on that straight track for some reason.”
Fresh won the National Racehorse Week Handicap last September off a mark of 102 – so tomorrow’s mark of 101 is fine….
…. and he’ll love the end-to-end pace of the race and the rising finish….
He was disappointing last time – never travelling – but that happens and he can bounce back. If he handles the ground again then he’s an underestimated player in my book….
I want to have two darts in this race and my second pick is KHANJAR at the general 11s….
He fluffed his lines badly on his first big test last term in the Ayr Gold Cup – where he was sent off favourite and finished down the field….
Maybe that tough assignment came too soon for him. 3yos have won that race but not all 3yos develop at the same rate….
What I like about tomorrow’s race is the quick ground….
On the occasions Khanjar’s raced with the word firm appearing in the official going description, his form figures read 312 and he produced three of his best four RPRs to date….
He produced the best of those RPRs (a career-best effort) in defeat last time at Hamilton – but there’s surely more to come from this lad when he gets an end-to-end gallop on quick ground (tomorrow’s set-up exactly)….
He starts in a high stall – so he’s on the other side to Fresh – and I like the addition of first-time cheekpieces (which look tactical rather than desperate)….
I’m backing LION OF WAR at 7s & 13/2 in the Golden Gates at 5.35….
He made a really good impression when winning the Edinburgh Cup at Musselburgh last time – coming over the top with a relentless finish late on….
He’d been bumped early doors which made him stumble and led to him losing ground – maybe 5- to 7-lengths….
The two that were closest to him at the end had always been prominent – so it was no shabby effort to run them down so strong and to be going away at the post….
He’s up just 4lbs for that. He can improve again. He loved the ground at Musselburgh and will surely enjoy the sound surface tomorrow. And I think he’ll be a stronger proposition still over the 10f….
Oisin Murphy is back in the saddle – and in big races around the bends at Ascot he’s as good as anybody these days….
A big field of 3yos over 10f is never an easy race to call – but I think my man has a decent shout at the price….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 5.00 @ Ascot….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally. In the 5.35 @ Ascot….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Look out for me in your email box….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose, or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned.
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