Friday, 30th June 2023
I’m backing LAW OF THE SEA in tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle (2.05) – at the general 12s….
With just a single winner to show for his last 38 runners, the form of trainer Ian Williams might seem a worry….
…. but he’s had a few seconds in the last week or so….
…. plus this horse ran perfectly okay at Royal Ascot last week and seems fit and well….
…. and ultimately that trumps the wider numbers for me….
This horse has improved since joining Ian Williams in April….
He was probably a little unlucky not to win the Chester Cup – having been denied a clear run at a crucial stage of the race he finished 4/16 beaten 1.75 lengths off a mark of 90….
And he ran well again at Haydock before hitting the frame again in last week’s Ascot Stakes – where he was 4/19 and beaten 2.5 lengths off a mark of 92….
He’s up to 93 now – but that doesn’t put the stopper in. The Williams team will be learning about this horse all the time and there’s more to come in one of these big staying races that Williams targets so effectively….
First-time cheekpieces go on tomorrow in a bid to concentrate the horse and to squeeze out that little extra in terms of performance….
It’s an interesting move. When the 5yo worse first-time cheekpieces as a 3yo, the headgear produced an improved performance. If they have the same positive effect tomorrow, we’ll be in business….
I’m backing LA HACIENDA in the Northumberland Vase at Newcastle (1.30) – at the general 10s….
Matthew J Smith’s 6yo mare lost her way at the back end of last term – running down the field at Leopardstown, at the Curragh, and again at Dundalk….
Prior to that she’d been one of the success stories of the season in the handicap division – producing three wins from four and progressing from 69 to 86 in the Irish handicap….
She turns out at Newcastle tomorrow on the back of a performance at Down Royal which suggests she’s recaptured something of her former sparkle….
The Listed race was her first start for 238 days, and she ran with credit. She was up against it at the weights finished third – and within 2.5 lengths of the winner….
Tomorrow’s race will be her first on this side of the Irish sea – and you can be sure she’s targeted to earn prize money. Harry Davies is booked for the ride and takes off a useful 3lbs….
She’ll need to come on again for her seasonal reappearance, but I expect she will – and that will put her in the mix….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 2.05 @ Newcastle….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook & Betway are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 1.30 @ Newcastle….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose, or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned.
PS. If you missed it yesterday, click here to see who I’m backing in the Gosforth Park Cup this afternoon….
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