Friday, 14th July 2023
Today is Day 2 at Newmarket’s July meeting….
…. which for handicap punters like us means….
…. the 6 Horse Challenge At bet365 Handicap – a race for the 3yos over the 10f trip….
…. the bet365 Trophy – a race over the 1m6f trip for horses aged 4yo+
.... and there’s a race up at York – the William Hill Epic Value Handicap over the 7f trip….
I sent out my betting advice for this afternoon’s race yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….
I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….
Sometimes it comes off. Other times it doesn’t….
… but because I go out early with my selections, we’re always a little ahead of the game here at ATC….
The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 2 – and I’m already thinking about Day 3 which means….
…. the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket over the 7f trip….
…. the bet365 Mile Handicap at Newmarket – one for the 3yos
…. the John Smith’s Cup at York over the 10f trip….
…. and the Heritage Handicap at Ascot over the 5f trip….
There’s rain forecast to fall over all three tracks today – and more (although less than today) tomorrow….
How much is anybody’s guess. But I’d expect conditions to ease from what they are this morning – at each track – ahead of racing tomorrow….
There’s a lot to get through. Let’s get down to business….
I’m backing BIGGLES at 8s for the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket (4.00)….
He wasn’t on the right part of the track at Ascot in the Buckingham Palace and his performance – he finished 9/29 and beaten 4.75 lengths – can be upgraded on that basis….
He might have got lucky tomorrow with his draw in stall 18. There’s early pace on that side. And horses expected to take a hand in the finish are situated on or towards the stands….
Assuming the track gets rain and a bit of juice gets into the ground, the 6yo will certainly be suited by that….
And I take it as a plus that Ryan Moore takes up the assignment in the saddle once again – perhaps seeking compensation for that defeat at Ascot last time….
He runs off 100 – the same mark from which he was narrowly defeated at Haydock in April and in the Victora Cup at Ascot in May….
He’s certainly not handicapped out of it. He just needs things to fall right. He’s a player tomorrow….
I’m backing SNIPER’S EYE at 8s in the bet365 Mile Handicap at Newmarket (2.50)….
This will be his first start in a handicap and he’s yet to win a race….
…. but he can probably be considered unlucky to have bumped into Imperial Emperor last time in a novice race over tomorrow’s course and distance where he got beaten 2.75 lengths – with the rest 2+ lengths in arrears….
Imperial Emperor was beaten in a Listed race at the track yesterday. Fair enough. But bear in mind he was considered a Derby horse early in the season and still holds an entry in the Arc….
He might not turn out to be quite that good. But he is rated 97 and an opening mark of 82 for Sniper’s Eye looks a little generous in that context….
He was down to take in an easier race at Ascot today. But connections – who paid 160,000 euros for him as a juvenile – have routed him here instead for a bigger prize. I see that as a positive….
I’m backing MILLEBOSC at 11s in the John Smith’s Cup up at York (3.10)….
He’s not been seen since debuting for William Haggas at Lingfield in November – in a race that was probably a looksee for the brains trust in the yard….
He’d need to be right at the first time of asking. But I note that Haggas pulled that exact same trick off in this race with Sinjaari in 2020….
…. and that the 2021 and 2022 renewals of this long-range target handicap were also won by horses on seasonal reappearance….
It’s been a bit of a stop-go-stop-go career for the 5yo to date – short periods of racing punctuated with long breaks….
…. but it’s unlikely that Haggs would be taking in a duffer….
…. and if you’re looking for a gauge as to Millebosc’s potential in Britian then look no further than a 1.75 length third to St Mark’s Basilica in a 3yo G1 at Chantilly in 2021 – with Sealiway splitting the pair….
That’s high-quality form. For sure, he’s not replicated that level of performance since. But tomorrow – in a handicap off a mark of 97 – he won’t need to….
He’s been gelded (with time to recover) and I’d expect him to be as ripe as Haggas can get him at home….
…. and – whilst he’s a bit of an unknown quantity – he’s a potentially very well-handicapped horse running out of an in-form powerhouse yard at a double-figure price and he’s well worth a swing of the bat….
I’m backing ZARZYNI at 12s in the Heritage Handicap at Ascot (1.45)….
He went off the boil last term after hitting the frame in this race – producing what I believe they call an ‘Audi’ with form figures that read 0000….
That placed performance was produced off a mark of 104. In the interim period he’s dropped to 94 – and he’s looking very nicely handicapped on this return to Ascot….
More importantly, he’s been looking much more like his old self this term – improving with each of his three appearances and beaten only a length at Epsom last time….
If he remains fit and firing then he’s simply got to be in with a shout off a mark in the low 90s and the price is more than acceptable….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 4.00 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 2.50 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 3.10 @ York….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. Bet365, William Hill & Unibet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 1.45 @ Ascot….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose, or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned.
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