Thursday, 12th October 2023
Right now, the ground at Newmarket is described as good to firm (good in places)….
…. and it’s good (good to soft in places) at York….
But there’s plenty of rain forecast to fall up and down the East coast overnight….
…. so underfoot conditions are set to soften up quite significantly….
…. if forecasts can be believed….
With that in mind, we press on….
Blinkers have worked the magic with John Gosden’s Humanity….
…. and he’s 8lb well-in under a 6lb penalty tomorrow – following his easy win at Kempton last month….
He’s not been missed by the market – which appears to be taking it as read that he’ll cope with the transition from a synthetic surface to turf….
…. on ground he’s likely never encountered before….
…. and the market might well turn out to be right. We will see….
But my job isn’t to follow the crowd….
…. my job is to dig out a ‘live’ contender at a price and I like Richard Fahey’s HAVE SECRET at this morning’s 14s & 12s….
He’s produced some decent performances in good 10f handicaps across the summer – without going in….
…. but the step up to the 12f trip tomorrow is the variable that might well turn that situation around….
He very much gives the impression that the extra yardage will suit – and he shouldn’t mind the ground….
He’s a fair bet at the price….
Alan King’s INSANITY gave the impression he has a future in staying handicaps when winning his novice event at Ffos Las last month….
That was just a 5-runner C4 event and this is a big step up in class….
…. but he could only beat what was put in front of him that day – and he did it well….
…. suggesting that tomorrow’s longer trip will see him to better effect still….
…. and that an opening mark in handicaps of 84 might be generous enough….
He’s by Nathaniel, he got the job done in Wales on an easy surface, and overnight rain shouldn’t be an inconvenience for him….
At this morning’s 11s he’s a bit of a dark horse for a yard that’s going well right now….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.35 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 2.40 @ York….
e/w terms = Sky Bet & William Hill are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow….
…. with my thoughts on Saturday’s action at Newmarket and York….
Meantime – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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