Friday, 12th January 2024
FONTAINE COLLONGES at the general 9s is the pick of the prices for tomorrow’s Classic Chase at Warwick (3.00)….
She saw plenty of money going into the London National at Sandown in December on seasonal debut – sent off the 5/2 jolly in a field of seven….
She’d finished the previous season in poor form – finishing down the field at Haydock in the Grand National Trial and pulling up at the Cheltenham Festival in March….
…. and the money at Sandown appeared to suggest that a summer wind-op had righted whatever was wrong….
We didn’t find out that day at Sandown – she unseated at the first….
…. but over Christmas – at Wetherby in the Rowand Meyrick – she came out on top in a contest characterized by a decent gallop and featuring just two finishers….
In a clear career-best performance, she won going away at the end of the 3m trip….
…. putting 14-lengths between herself and Empire Steel….
…. and giving the impression that further still will see her to better effect still…..
She’s unproven at tomorrow’s marathon trip – but both goes to date offer pretty obvious mitigation…
…. and the way she finished at Wetherby suggests she could well improve for the extra yardage now that her breathing issue has been remedied….
She’s up 7lb to mark of 140 – but that wouldn’t have stopped her or got her beaten at Wetherby – and she can go in again….
You might recall that back in April last year (three runs back) Anthony Honeyball’s SAM BROWN was running a belter – he was leading – when falling two fences out in the Pat Taafe at Punchestown….
You might also recall that he was wearing blinkers for the first time that day….
Tomorrow – in the rescheduled Series Final of the Veterans’ Handicap Chase at Warwick (3.00) – the 12yo sports a first time visor….
Looking back at that Punchestown race, it’s clear that Honeyball didn’t just pitch up in Ireland and hope for the best….
There was a game plan….
…. that was clearly derivative of at least some expectation….
…. and – on a level – the horse delivered the anticipated performance….
I’m expecting something similar tomorrow. And it’s not just the first-time headgear. I think Sam Brown is a well-handicapped horse….
Look back to the start of last season and review the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby….
….. where Sam Brown was beaten just 4-lengths by subsequent King George winner Bravemansgame and just half-a-length by Eldorado Allen….
Okay, not all form can be taken absolutely at face value….
…. it was early doors in the season….
…. but it was still a terrific performance from Sam Brown (giving Bravemansgame 1lb) – on ground that wouldn’t have been as soft as he likes it….
He was rated 157 at the time. Now he’s rated 147 (pretty much as low as he’s ever been rated over fences)….
….. and surely – just over a year later – he’s well-handicapped and dangerous against a legion of veteran campaigners….
His trainer knows what to do to get this race won – he won it in 2020 with Jepeck – and I reckon at the 10s that Sam Brown is a fair bet tomorrow afternoon to capitalise on what is a fantastic opportunity….
We’ve seen less of KING ALEXANDER than we have of the other market principals for tomorrow’s Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton (2.42)….
So has the handicapper….
…. and Nicky Henderson’s apparent second-stringer is the pick of the prices for me at this morning’s general 9s….
He took a big step forward on his single seasonal appearance to date – at Exeter in November….
…. and he’s up 10lb on the official rating scale to a mark of 131 on the back of that….
It’s my contention that he’s going to be at least a stone better still over time….
…. and he can earn some of that extra ballast tomorrow – having been held back by his trainer and back up at intermediate trips….
For sure, Impose Toi has shown more at this point in time….
…. and is a worthy favourite tomorrow….
…. but I’m not sure my lad should be three times bigger in the betting….
…. and that’s what it boils down to….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.00 @ Warwick….
e/w terms = William Hill, Sky Bet & 888sport are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 3.35 @ Warwick….
e/w terms = Unibet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 2.42 @ Kempton….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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