Friday, 26th January 2024
I’m on SAIL AWAY at the general 14s in tomorrow’s Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3.15)….
He was thought about for the Charlie Hall – a lofty target for a horse rated 145….
…. and the Grand Sefton….
…. but ended up running in neither race because the ground turned testing….
He returned at Newbury over 2m4f and ran like he needed it….
Next time he got a sighter of tomorrow’s track and trip in December’s bet365 Handicap Chase – finishing 6/15 and beaten 8.75 lengths….
…. just giving the impression that he’ll be better with that run in him….
If you were going to design a race for Sail Away – it would be 3m, going left, on a flat track, with plenty of jumps up the straight….
Those are Dan Skelton’s words – not mine. And Doncaster delivers that exact set-up tomorrow….
Add drying ground to the mix and conditions are perfect for a horse that’s improved each time he’s raced on a decent surface….
Sail Away remains progressive, unexposed at 3m+, and well-handicapped on a mark of 142….
…. and I’m hoping this is a Dan Skelton plan….
…. give the horse a sighter and a work-out in the December race….
…. turn up at peak fitness tomorrow – for the bigger prize….
We’ll see how it turns out – but I reckon he’s underestimated at the 14s….
Your winner-finding Cheltenham Festival report….In case you missed yesterday’s issue of ATC…. …. my new research report is called Pinpoint ‘live’ contenders at the Cheltenham Festival 2024…. I analysed Festival race data going back 25-years – looking for pointers, angles, and clues…. …. what I discovered will help you pinpoint ‘live’ contenders in all the big handicaps and G1 championship races run at Cheltenham in March…. |
In the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (1.15), I’m backing GA LAW at the 10s….
It’s interesting that he’s entered in this race at all….
…. because on this Saturday afternoon last year he was up at Doncaster and joint-favourite for the race we looked at earlier….
…. and he ran a big race too….
The winner was probably going just that bit better approaching the last fence….
…. but Ga Law still had every chance when coming down there….
Given he’s currently rated 150 – the exact same mark he ran off at Doncaster last year….
…. you’d think connections might head back up there this weekend to take care of unfinished business….
Perhaps carrying top-weight of 12-00 put them off….
…. down at Cheltenham Ga Law carries 11-8….
Perhaps that 6lb encouraged connections to go to Cheltenham for a race over 2m4f….
…. but it’s odd….
…. because they’ve been talking-up this horse as a through stayer…. a Grand National horse….
So the step back in trip is interesting….
After all, it was only 14 months ago that Ga Law won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham over this kind of trip….
Perhaps connections learnt something when they applied first-time cheekpieces in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury….
…. something that encourages them to return to the shorter trip….
That Paddy Power win came off 142….
…. now Ga Law is rated 150….
You could say that’s a stiff-enough mark….
…. but when you think the horses that followed him home that day….
…. French Dynamite, Midnight River, and Il Ridoto….
…. are up 6lb, 11lb, and 8lb in the meantime….
…. it’s reasonable to think he can go rate higher still….
If they go at a good clip, it could just play to his strengths late on….
I just find it interesting race placement – and the 11s is a fair price….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.15 @ Doncaster….
e/w terms = William Hill, bet365, Sky Bet, 888sport, Betway & Livescore are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 1.15 @ Cheltenham….
e/w terms = It’s 1/4 the first 5 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
